— By John K. Jackson of Colliers Phoenix —
Casa Grande, Ariz., stands at a pivotal juncture that could see it transition into a Tier II retail market this year. Phoenix’s Greater Metropolitan Area has been characterized by historically low retail vacancy rates, prompting retailers and developers to explore opportunities outside the urban core. Casa Grande’s strategic location less than 50 miles south of Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport makes it well-positioned to capitalize on this migration.
The Dynamics of Casa Grande’s Growth
Casa Grande has experienced notable growth in recent years. It was the seventh fastest-growing U.S. city in 2021, experiencing a remarkable 24 percent population increase since 2016. This growth, paired with job creation across sectors, is attracting major employers, including Lucid, LG Energy Solution and Kohler.
These three firms promise to collectively bring more than 6,400 jobs to the area. Such economic development lays a solid foundation for retail expansion. After all, a growing workforce typically leads to increased consumer demand.
The significant investments being made in the area further bolster Casa Grande’s potential as a retail hub. Lucid has recently expanded its manufacturing complex to 4 million square feet, with plans for additional land acquisition to support future growth. Similarly, LG Energy Solution’s $5.5 billion battery manufacturing complex is expected to boost the local economy, with the first factory slated for completion later this year. Kohler’s newly opened manufacturing facility adds to the momentum, indicating strong industrial growth that can support retail development.
Retail Opportunities
The recent acquisition of 600-plus acres by Arizona Land Consulting for a mixed-use facility also signals confidence in Casa Grande’s retail potential. This $40 million project — which could incorporate commercial retail, build-for-rent housing, light industrial and data centers — is aligned with emerging consumer preferences for integrated living and shopping environments.
Another development is the anticipated reopening of Target at the region’s premier power center, Promenade at Casa Grande. This reopening will not only enhance retail offerings but draw foot traffic from surrounding areas. Additional vacant pad locations situated adjacent to Promenade will certainly attract more retailers to this center.
Casa Grande retail leasing has fully bounced back from its pandemic highs of 2020, dropping from a peak of 20.2 percent to the current rate of 11.7 percent. The population — currently approaching 80,000 — is projected to exceed 120,000 by 2040. Those new residents will fuel retail growth in all sectors, ranging from restaurants and merchandise to service providers and entertainment venues.
The Outlook for Casa Grande
The combination of economic growth, strategic location and significant investments positions Casa Grande as a viable candidate for Tier II market status in retail by the end of 2025 and beyond. As developers and retailers continue to shift their focus toward outlying communities, Casa Grande may emerge as a new retail boomtown, benefiting from both its existing infrastructure, as well as the influx of new residents and jobs.
Ultimately, Casa Grande’s potential will depend on strategic planning, the ability to attract diverse retailers and infrastructure to support sustainable development. The city’s success will also hinge on ensuring its evolution into a possible Tier II market aligns with the needs of Casa Grande’s residents and businesses.
Casa Grande’s growth is indicative of broader trends that favor suburban areas as retail markets continue to evolve. With strategic planning and continued investment, Casa Grande could well become a key player in Arizona’s retail landscape in the future.
— John K. Jackson, vice president of Colliers in Phoenix. This article originally appeared in the January 2025 issue of Western Real Estate Business.