The combination of a reeling stock market, weak consumer confidence, and an escalating European debt crisis has led to growing concerns about the possibility of a double-dip recession.
Not so fast, says Ethan Penner, a self-described contrarian. The president and founder of CBRE Capital Partners is convinced that the deeply gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy held by many Americans means that now is the ideal time to turn bullish.
“I would say there probably has never been a Depression or a market crash when everyone is bearish. Think about the last big crash we had, which was 2007 and 2008. Everyone was incredibly bullish, incredibly optimistic.”
The comments from Penner came during his keynote address delivered Sept. 27 in Atlanta as part of a commercial real estate finance conference hosted jointly by law firm Morris, Manning & Martin and France Media.
“I’m known for being an inveterate bear, but this pervasive bearishness is causing me to reconsider that. The next surprise is more likely to be on the upside than the downside,” Penner told attendees.
Still, the global macro economic climate and financial system are in extremely bad shape, Penner acknowledged.
To help prop up the weak housing market, the Obama administration will push for a massive mortgage debt forgiveness program, Penner predicts. “I think that will be something that could catalyze and inspire a pretty significant economic bull market.”
Penner is widely regarded as a pioneer in commercial real estate finance. He headed a commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) group at Nomura in the 1990s, but an Asian financial crisis in 1998 led to his sudden departure.
— Matt Valley