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Magid HTL Forecast Tracker Predicts $75B in Projected Hotel Revenue Losses This Year

MINNEAPOLIS — Minneapolis-based Magid HTL Forecast Tracker has released its predictions for the upcoming 12 months for the hotel industry. The forecast suggests the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a 29 percent decline in annual hotel occupancy. The results will be a projected approximately $75 billion revenue loss for the industry.

The estimate is according to the Magid HTL Forecast Tracker and Horwath HTL, a global hotel, tourism and leisure consulting brand.

The forecasted decline is driven by the disappearance of business and leisure travel coupled with a projected 22 percent decline in consumer sentiment for attending meetings or conferences over the next 12 months.

“The forecast shows the continuing significant impact COVID is having on hotel occupancy,” says Rich Garlick, vice president and strategy consultant for Magid. “Currently, the forecast suggests a 39 percent decline in occupancy for the next month. If the average occupancy at this time of the year (summer) is 70 percent, this would put current occupancy around 43 percent.”

The most recent wave of research, conducted July 29 to August 2, shows that 71 percent of consumers expect to next stay in a hotel 24 months from now — a result that is down from the baseline behavior of 89 percent in March and 74 percent in early June. Additionally, only 56 percent of consumers expect to next stay in a hotel a year from now, compared to 62 percent in June and 79 percent in March.

Airline travel intentions are paralleling hotel intentions, with the current forecast for the next 12 months slated to decline 31 percent.

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