WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecasting that total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending will rise to $583 billion in 2025, which is a 16 percent increase from 2024’s estimated total of $503 billion. The Washington, D.C.-based organization made the announcement at its 2025 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo (CREF) event taking place in San Diego.
Multifamily lending, which is calculated into the total figure, is expected to rise to $361 billion in 2025 — also a 16 percent increase from last year’s estimate of $312 billion. MBA anticipates originations in 2026 will increase to $709 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $419 billion of that allocated to multifamily lending.
“Given the strong pickup in origination activity at the end of 2024, it appears that at least some borrowers and lenders are ready to move,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist. “MBA is forecasting that interest rates are going to stay within a trading range for the next few years. We expect an increase in originations across property types and capital sources, but certainly recognize the additional challenges posed by the large number of loans scheduled to mature in 2025.”
The MBA also announced that total commercial and multifamily loan originations for fourth-quarter 2024 were up 84 percent compared to fourth-quarter 2023 and up 30 percent compared to third-quarter 2024. Based off preliminary measures, the organization is estimating that loan volumes in 2024 were 39 percent higher than 2023.
“2024, and particularly the fourth quarter, was a welcome rebound for the industry following a slow pace of origination activity in 2023,” said Fratantoni. “The significant, but brief, dip in interest rates in September, followed by a pickup in market sentiment post-election, resulted in more business, with origination activity back to 2022 levels.”
— Staff Reports