WASHINGTON, D.C. — Total commercial mortgage origination volume is expected to reach $805.5 billion in 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The real estate finance organization announced the commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast at its 2026 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo this week in San Diego.
According to the CREF report, originations in 2026 are expected to reflect a 27 percent increase relative to 2025, which saw an estimated volume of $633.7 billion in commercial real estate and multifamily loans. This total would also be the most loan production in the industry since 2022 ($815.6 billion).
Of the total, $399.2 billion in volume is predicted for the multifamily sector, which represents a 20.8 increase from 2025’s estimated total ($330.6 billion).
Mike Frantantoni, MBA’s chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development, presented the findings, along with Reggie Booker and Judith Ricks, who are both associate vice presidents of CREF Research.
“The [commercial real estate] lending market showed strength throughout 2025,” says Ricks. “Commercial originations increased year-over-year during the first six months, and this growth continued in the second half of the year. The multifamily market experienced similar strength throughout the year, and that is expected to continue in 2026.”
The MBA attributes the upcoming growth in origination volume to rising confidence in the stability of property values and the macro-economic environment, including expectations that the 10-year Treasury yield will average 4.2 percent throughout 2026.
“The steeper yield curve will likely continue the trend where commercial borrowers pivot to shorter-term loans,” said the MBA in a statement.
The MBA also reports that delinquency rates across property types and capital sources increased between the first and third quarters of 2025. A large number of loans are scheduled to mature in 2026, which will likely lead to additional increases in delinquencies.
Based in Washington, D.C., the MBA is the national association representing the real estate finance industry. The association was originally founded in 1913.
— Hayden Spiess