Atlanta, GA — In its inaugural forecast of the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will hit $230 billion in 2012, an increase of 17 percent from 2011 volumes, and continue to rise to $290 billion in 2015.
Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to also grow in 2012, ending the year above $2.4 trillion, two percent higher than at the end of 2011. By the end of 2015, mortgage debt outstanding is forecast to exceed $2.5 trillion. MBA previewed its forecast of the commercial/multifamily markets today at its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Housing Convention in Atlanta.
“Our forecast anticipates continued strength in lending by life companies and the GSEs, increased lending by banks and others, and a slow but steady return in CMBS activity,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's vice president of commercial real estate research. “Low loan maturity volumes over the next few years, coupled with moderate sales transaction activity, will mean that a relatively robust supply of mortgage capital will be a catalyst for deal activity.”
Commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers' originations volumes are projected to rise to $230 billion in 2012, $245 billion in 2013, $265 billion in 2014 and $290 billion in 2015. The increases in originations activity will push commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding to $2.4 trillion by the end of 2012 and more than $2.5 trillion in 2015.
The projections come from the Mortgage Bankers Association's inaugural forecast of key commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets. The forecast will be available to MBA's commercial/multifamily members and projects commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes, the level of mortgage debt outstanding and loan maturity volumes, including details for major investor groups and for the multifamily real estate finance sector.
The detailed forecast will be released to MBA's commercial/multifamily members in the coming weeks at www.mortgagebankers.org/research.