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MBA Predicts Commercial, Multifamily Lending to Hit Record $1 Trillion in 2022

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The total volume for commercial and multifamily mortgage originations is expected to hit a record of over $1 trillion in 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) forecast released on Monday at the 2022 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo. MBA’s forecast represents a 13 percent increase from 2021’s estimated volume of $900 billion.

“2021 was a remarkable year for commercial real estate markets, and we expect 2022 to continue that momentum,” says Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president for commercial real estate research. “Commercial real estate lending volumes are closely tied to the values of the underlying properties. In 2021, those values rose by more than 20 percent, and those increases will fuel further demand for mortgage debt in the coming years. Continued increases in property incomes, and stability in the ways investors value those incomes, should also support solid demand for mortgage capital, even in the face of modest increases in interest rates.”

In past years, MBA’s forecast targeted lending by dedicated commercial and multifamily lenders, which excluded mortgages made by many smaller and midsized depositories. The lending volumes in this year’s forecast includes those institutions.

Multifamily lending is expected to reach $493 billion in 2022, which is a new record and a 5 percent increase that surpasses 2021’s record total of $470 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending to remain high in 2023, with slightly more than $1 trillion of total commercial real estate lending and $474 billion in multifamily lending.

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