This year marks the centennial of several Miami municipalities, including Coral Gables and Hialeah, placing Miami-Dade County in a unique position: looking back on a rich history as a sunseeker’s playground, while charging full speed into a future where it is also a tech hub and financial powerhouse, with some dubbing the city as “Wall Street South.”
From the first land rush in the 1920s to the post-pandemic migration surge a century later, Miami’s real estate story includes fascinating characters, iconic architecture, multiple booms and busts and not one but two great railroad eras — all contributing to the city’s allure as a place to live, and where institutional-quality capital is increasingly eager to invest.
Population, job momentum
Miami has enjoyed one of the strongest multifamily markets in the country for roughly the past decade. A blend of population growth and job creation forms the backbone of Miami’s resilient rental market. Miami-Dade County added over 64,000 net new residents as of July 2024, driven almost entirely by international newcomers. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the county saw 123,835 international arrivals, offsetting the 67,000 locals who left.
Behind that growth is an unprecedented business boom. Lured by Florida’s business-friendly environment and wealth migration, companies like Amazon, JP Morgan, Blackstone and Apple are expanding their Miami footprint and workforce. The city’s airport and seaport continue to be major economic drivers: Miami International Airport saw record-breaking passenger and cargo growth in 2024, and MSC Cruises just opened the largest cruise terminal in the world at PortMiami.
New businesses and corporate expansions will expand South Florida’s labor force to nearly 3.1 million by year end. Miami-Dade County’s job growth in third-quarter 2024 outpaced the 10 largest counties in the United States according to the Census.
All income brackets
High home prices and elevated interest rates have made the dream of homeownership elusive for lower and middle-class residents. Between 2019 and 2024, the number of single-family home sales under $500,000 in Miami-Dade County dropped 79.6 percent, according to Analytics Miami. At the same time, higher-earning households, realizing there’s more value in a luxury apartment in a prime location than an expensive home in a subpar location, are also more likely to rent.
A bifurcated condominium market, once seen as a bridge to homeownership, is contributing to that trend. While new luxury condo sales are strong — fueled by high-net-worth buyers like soccer superstar Lionel Messi, who recently purchased at the newly announced Cipriani Residences Miami — the value of older condos are sliding due to the post-Surfside collapse legislation aimed at addressing deferred maintenance. The net result: more households are opting to rent, by choice or by necessity, but often for the long term.
Tight conditions, rising rents
After two years of record-breaking supply in Miami, apartment dynamics are starting to shift. Strong absorption and limited starts are putting Miami on track to end the year with tighter conditions. According to the Berkadia 2025 South Florida Outlook report, 16,860 new apartment units will be delivered across South Florida this year, which is less than needed to meet the forecasted absorption of 20,790 units.
As a result, occupancy rates are projected to rise 70 basis points to 95.6 percent, while effective rents are expected to increase 3.4 percent to an average of $2,593 per month. Submarkets like Downtown Miami, as well as suburban markets like Coral Gables, Kendall and Hialeah, will see some of the strongest demand.
Investment dynamics
Investor sentiment was strong at the top of 2025, despite ongoing capital market volatility and economic uncertainty. According to Berkadia’s inaugural Multifamily Investor Sentiment Survey, about 65 percent of investors anticipate expanding their portfolios this year, seeing now as a good time to acquire well-located assets with a “replacement cost story.” With new development curtailed by higher capital and construction costs, existing apartment inventory is more valuable, particularly in supply-constrained markets like Miami.
For well-capitalized developers, in-fill suburban locations close to mass transit will be the most in-demand. These include:
• Coral Gables – This market enjoys some of the highest rents and lowest vacancies in the county, and there are only 11 existing institutional-sized (over 200 units) apartment buildings supporting 12.7 million square feet of office, suggesting more opportunity.
• South Miami-Dade/Homestead – Located halfway between downtown Miami and the Florida Keys, this area is seeing many new market-rate and affordable housing communities catering to renters priced out of more urban markets or the Keys. Rents have effectively doubled in this area.
• Aventura – For decades, this land-constrained submarket grew through luxury condo sales. The arrival of the Aventura Brightline Station in 2022, making cities like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Boca Raton and West Palm Beach more easily accessible, ushered in a new era of multifamily development. The area’s proximity to the beach, North Miami Beach and abundant retail options — including Aventura Mall — add to this submarket’s appeal.
Looking ahead
Looking ahead, several trends are poised to reshape Miami’s multifamily landscape:
• Megaprojects and Affordable Housing Initiatives – Public-private partnerships and the Live Local Act are producing a wave of new “megaprojects.” Miami-Dade County approved the largest affordable housing project in its history — a $3 billion project spanning 63 acres with more than 2,000 units in Miami’s Little River neighborhood — in April. Similar large-scale projects have been proposed in Wynwood and South Miami, among other places.
• Transit-oriented development – The expansion of the Brightline rail service has spurred significant transit-oriented development (TOD) opportunities across South Florida, including areas that enjoy connectivity through the Metrorail like Coconut Grove and Hialeah.
• Condo Crisis and Redevelopment Opportunities – Older condo properties, particularly in waterfront areas, are strategic redevelopment targets. Many owners and associations are more receptive to buyout offers to avoid crippling special assessments. Developers with the patience and know-how to make these complex deals work could end up with prime sites for new luxury condo developments.
Population and job growth trends, along with limited for-sale housing, are setting Miami up for long-term apartment demand, with the greatest need in transit-oriented pockets where renters can enjoy access and connectivity to all the Magic City has to offer. Macro-economic headwinds, including rising insurance and construction costs, continue to present the greatest challenge to Miami’s multifamily market moving forward.
— This article, provided by Berkadia South Florida, was originally published in the May 2025 issue of Southeast Real Estate Business.