Tenants and landlords forge into 2012 confronting many of the same challenges they had going into 2011. Atlanta’s office market still has a great deal of excess supply and demand remains below its pre-recession levels. The entire market has not pushed fully past concerns about properties with significant vacancy and looming debt obligations. Doubts about the broader economy also inhibit long-term strategic planning. The office market closed out 2011 largely unchanged from a year ago. The overall availability rate only fell by 1.1 pp from 26.5% to 25.4% over the course of the last four quarters.
““Vacancy rates remain high throughout the market and the vast majority of tenants have many options to choose from when negotiating leases,” says Andrew Lechter, executive vice president and branch manager of Studley Inc.
The U.S. economy has shown signs of minimal gains in momentum and remains vulnerable to a sharp shock such as what has been called Europe’s “Lehman moment” or a spike in oil prices precipitated by a Mideast crisis. Some of the chronic problems that hampered U.S. growth – weak labor and housing markets – remain particularly acute in Atlanta and registered minimal improvement in 2011. Until employment and labor markets gain momentum, Atlanta’s office market will also lack consistency.
Atlanta’s labor market has followed the national trends, registering some small gains in recent months, but the pace of growth in office-using employment remains subpar and lags faster growth in sectors that do not absorb much office space. Office-using employment has only regained 0.6% of the 76,052 jobs lost during the recession. Niches within the tech sector, such as data centers, boosted the region’s construction industry somewhat but did not require much office space. These sectors are also expected to continue to grow at a faster pace than the core tenants for traditional office space such as the financial, professional/business services and information industries.
Many landlords also still face the challenges of retaining their tenant roster and meeting financial obligations. These problems are not as widespread as they were in 2009 and 2010, particularly in the highest-caliber Class A assets. Nevertheless, in the market at large, landlords must be very competitive with generous incentives if they want to hold on to existing tenants or lure them from other properties. Leases involving true expansion remain limited, and landlords remain eager to sign creditworthy tenants to long-term commitments. Tenants, like landlords, remain squarely focused on their bottom line. With the exception of fast-growing sectors such as technology, most companies continue to deal with revenues that are still below pre-recession levels and do not appear likely to spike in 2012. Most companies can anticipate that the cost of doing business is not likely to fluctuate that much during the coming year.
“Many landlords must complete leases in order to refinance their debt,” Lechter says. “We do not see the market making a meaningful shift in favor of landlords any time soon and tenants who are pro-active and well-positioned can realize significant cost savings well in advance of lease expiration date regardless of whether they choose to relocate or stay in place.”
The main quandary, then, for companies with time left on their existing lease, is when to strike given the uncertainty that prevails. Tenants can still select from a deep pool of space and although concessions have been pared from their peak levels, informed tenants can still find favorable lease terms. Atlanta continues to have a fairly extensive array of big blocks for tenants to consider. Larger companies more certain of their space-use needs and with the ability to agree to long-term leases are in a strong position, and should be able to lock in generous lease terms. Larger tenants in buildings that are trying to arrange financing or position an asset for sale have a great deal of leverage. Now is also the time to secure flexibility on options such as expansion/termination rights and operating expense caps. Although companies with a little more time on their lease term may be able to wait somewhat longer to see how the market performs, they run the risk of additional tightening in concessions as well as increased rents in the highest-caliber properties.
Availability rates reflect the flight to quality in Buckhead and Midtown over the last four quarters. While the region's overall rate has barely budged over the last year, the Class A rate has decreased by 1.9 pp, due primarily to substantial declines in Midtown and Buckhead. Buckhead’s Class A rate has fallen sharply, plummeting by 7.7 pp from 25.5% a year ago to 17.8% at year-end 2011. Deal volume in Midtown and Buckhead spiked in the 2011. Leasing activity in both submarkets was well above historical averages, exceeding those averages by 20.4% and 6.1%, respectively. With the exception of a handful of top-tier properties in Buckhead and Midtown, landlords lack pricing power in this market. Regional overall asking rents fell by 0.7% in the quarter and have declined by 1.1% compared to a year ago.
The nature of Atlanta’s tech sector – with strength in data centers and smaller software firms – has only a limited impact on the region’s office market. However, Alpharetta has registered some decent leasing activity on the part of smaller and mid-sized tech companies. Veeam Software, for example, signed a 25,762-sf lease that will move the company from a 7,176-sf space at the Northwinds III office building to the top floor of Northwinds II. The continued expansion of data centers prompts conversion of office and some industrial space. Colocation centers appear to have a great deal of long-term growth potential in Atlanta. According to Tier 1 research, demand for multi-tenant data centers will climb by 14% globally in 2011, while supply will grow by 7%. Atlanta is poised for further growth in this niche. Data center providers are attracted to Atlanta’s temperate climate, solid fiber infrastructure and reliable and reasonably inexpensive power. The Technology Association of Georgia hopes to amplify the region’s low-cost power advantage via legislation that would provide data centers discounts on the electricity they use.
According to Data Center Knowledge, Twitter selected Atlanta after considering several East Coast sites. Twitter announced that it had installed computer servers in a nearly 1.0-million-sf data center at 1033 Jefferson Street. The company has leased up to 50,000 sf at the center and could reportedly invest as much as $100.0 million in the facility. Quality Technology Services (QTS), which leases out the center, recently invested $85.0 million in it to increase the raised floor space to 330,000 sf. QTS intends to expand its suburban colocation facilities and recently purchased nearly 21 acres adjacent to its Suwanee data center. The company could build an additional 200,000-sf data center on the property. Alpharetta also continues to benefit from expansion among tech firms.
Office-property sales, while also displaying some green shoots, were still impaired by concerns about distressed properties. High-quality assets with stable cash flow command top dollar but properties with significant vacancies either incur a stiff penalty or end up in foreclosure. In September, Raleigh-based Highwoods Properties added Riverwood 100 to its portfolio, paying $78.1 million, or $156.00 psf, for the 502,400-sf building. The building was more than 90% leased at time of sale. In contrast, Securities Centre in Buckhead ended up back in the hands of LNR Partners for $56.0 million after the building’s owner and LNR were unable to work out an arrangement to restructure $70.0 million in debt underlying the property. Similarly, 245 Perimeter Center went into foreclosure in November. Former owner Novare Group Holdings paid $60.0 million for the 240,000-sf property in 2007, but was unable to reach an agreement with lender GE Capital on the debt restructure.
Locking larger tenants into long-term leases at face rents that meet pro forma rents is particularly critical for property owners who are either trying to refinance their existing debt or are positioning an asset for a sale. Based on numbers from Trepp LLC, Atlanta ranks as the worst market in terms of the percentage of properties with “red flag” issues. About 20% of commercial real estate loans that financed acquisitions of Atlanta office assets in the last several years are at least 60 days delinquent, and another 22% have been kicked to the special servicer. This group of loans includes several on prominent buildings that were transferred to special servicing in the fourth quarter and face the prospect of being immobilized or falling into zombie status. Tishman Speyer, for example, faces default on a $116.0-million loan underlying Colony Square in Midtown and a $65.0-million loan secured by Midtown Plaza. Bank of America Plaza – which has seen Bank of America shrink its occupancy from 400,000 sf to 200,000 sf, and will lose Paul Hastings in 2012 as the firm has leased 67,000 sf at the Proscenium building in Midtown – is also in special servicing.
Looking Forward:
Expectations for the economy and the office market in 2012 are subdued. Atlanta’s economy is expected to continue to struggle to overcome weakness in banking and real estate. The baseline scenario calls for sluggish growth in the region. Barring a relapse into recession, 2012 should remain an ideal time for tenants in a variety of situations to capitalize on opportunities to lock in long-term savings on real estate costs. Larger creditworthy tenants willing to commit to long-term deals will continue to enjoy strong negotiating power.
— Studley Inc.