WASHINGTON, D.C. — The National Retail Federation (NRF) has projected that U.S. retail sales will reach between $5.2 trillion and $5.3 trillion this year, which would mark an annual increase of 2.5 to 3.5 percent. The projection was announced today during the organization’s “State of Retail and the Consumer” webinar.
The calculation excludes transactions at automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants, focusing on core retail. Non-store and online sales are included in the figure and expected to account for roughly $1.5 trillion of spending.
“The resiliency of consumers continues to power the American economy, and we are confident there will be moderate but steady growth through the end of the year,” says Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the NRF. Sales reached $5.1 trillion in 2023, marking an annual growth of 3.6 percent from 2022.