Orange County continues to be a diverse marketplace for commercial real estate as we reflect back on 2019. Thanks to a growing and varied workforce made up of highly skilled and educated workers — with tech and life sciences at the forefront of transactions — the county’s economy remains strong. Looking ahead, Orange County’s local market is very resilient, despite the fact that economy leasing volume has slowed as tenants are focusing on space-efficient decisions. This market continues to remain stable thanks to a number of existing buildings that have been or are currently under renovation to meet the demand of companies that are branching out from traditional office space. A few of these repositioned properties include the Launch, the Met, 2722 Michelson Drive and the Press, which is currently under construction in Costa Mesa. Overall vacancy in the county has been 13.8 percent, while overall asking rental rates are $2.95 per square foot (full-service gross) with Class A rates sitting at $3.23 per square foot. Some submarkets are home to the majority of this activity, including the Airport area and South Orange County due to ideal geographic locations for businesses and new office development. Of course, fundamentals vary by …
Orange County’s multifamily housing market remained exceptionally strong throughout 2019. The average asking rent closed the quarter at $2,055 per unit, up 3.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2018. This was the highest asking rent on record, up 34.5 percent from the prior peak reached in the third quarter of 2008. The Central submarket saw the largest year-over-year rental rate increase, with the asking rent there rising 3.8 percent to $1,920 per unit. This quarter, the Irvine submarket also saw its average asking rent adjust a bit, down 0.7 percent from the prior quarter to $2,446 per unit as existing inventory competed with new construction added to the market. However, the average rent in Irvine is up 3.2 percent from last year. Completed construction has pushed vacancy up. The total vacancy rate in Orange County this quarter registered 4.8 percent, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter, steady from the fourth quarter of 2018. Four significant projects totaling 2,567 units were completed this quarter. This includes Promenade at Irvine Spectrum with 1,781 units; SkyLoft, a 388-unit development in Irvine; the Charlie Orange County, a 228-unit complex in Santa Ana; and the Murphy, a 170-unit complex in Irvine. Annual …
Demand for Orange County industrial space remained healthy in 2019 as vacancy rates ended another year in record-low territory at 2.9 percent, fueled by a strong second-half net absorption. The movement in the second half of 2019 was largely a result of the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low, which provided assurance for buyers that had been on the fence. The attractive interest rates have led to steady price increases, however, adaptation has been slow. The average time on the market has increased by roughly 30 to 60 days from 2018. Many buyers also struggled with post-close deferred maintenance. With the typical industrial building in Orange County being construction in 1985, buyers are often challenged with renovation costs adding to their bottom lines. Meanwhile, landlords in 2019 became more conservative in rent demands as average gains in asking full-service rents fell to 4.2 percent countywide, compared to 4.9 percent in 2018. Leasing activity remained steady with an average asking rate across Orange County of about $1 per square foot, triple net. A handful of notable new construction projects advanced in 2019. In the fourth quarter, 10 buildings totaling nearly 1.2 million square feet were completed in North Orange County, …
Retail transaction volume was strong in January as the shorter 2019 holiday season created a tight window for year-end closings, residual transactions pushed into the New Year and gave 2020 an early jump on what should be another great year. Total transactions in 2020 should continue to build from the big start. The massive transaction volume from the second half of 2019 — more specifically, a glut of fourth-quarter sellers — has produced a wave of investors needing to complete 1031 exchange purchases in the second and third quarters of 2020. By comparison, 2019 featured a slower than typical start due to a combination of elevated interest rates and residual investor hangover from the equity markets debacle of the fourth quarter of 2018. Our sense is that 2020 will benefit from enormous velocity, driven by private investor demand and seller willingness to meet market expectations in favor of quicker transactions as fears of the late cycle, election turmoil and international unrest grow. Further evidence of seller’s alignment with market expectations, trailing available data has shown the asking price to sale ratio narrowed from nearly 12 percent in first-quarter 2019 to 3 percent in fourth-quarter 2019. This brought the bid/ask more …
Southern California’s Inland Empire region has enjoyed a sustained period of growth in the retail real estate sector. Good spaces in quality centers are leasing quickly. Although new developments have slowed, there is still about 1.2 million square feet of new space under construction. These are all top-tier projects that will very much enhance the communities where they are being built. Projects include a Sprouts-anchored center in Eastvale, a Grocery Outlet/Planet Fitness center in Beaumont, an Aldi-anchored center in Hesperia, a Stater Bros. center in Calimesa, AMC Theaters at Montclair Place in Montclair and a Cardenas grocery market center in Montclair. Conversely, apart from the Inland Empire, there are likely few other areas that were as impacted by the recent store closure announcements from Sears and Forever 21. Closings will occur in Montclair, San Bernardino, Victorville, Moreno Valley, Palm Desert, Riverside, Temecula and Rancho Mirage. All told, more than 900,000 square feet of big box space just hit the market. The Inland Center Mall in San Bernardino, which has been a very healthy property over the past few years, is dealing with both a Sears and Forever 21 closure. Macy’s and JC Penney (opened in 2016) still remain at the …
The Inland Empire industrial market signaled that it may be transitioning toward slower growth in the second half of the year. Leasing volume declined sharply to nearly 7.8 million square feet, which is the lowest volume seen in a single quarter since 2011. New construction deliveries pushed the average rent to the highest level on record — $0.86 per square foot. Of the 13.7 million square feet completed year to date, 32 percent remained available at the end of the quarter. Despite the deliveries, vacancy remained steady at 4.5 percent since the third quarter of 2018, proving demand for industrial space in the Inland Empire is still present. The U.S. economy may be facing a drop off after climbing steadily for the past 10 years. The trade war and tariffs are undoubtedly influencing the ports’ cargo volume, which supports industrial demand in the Inland Empire. Retailers usually prepare for increased sales during the holiday season by increasing imports in July and August. However, imports through August 2019 were down 2.4 percent from 2018. Imports had increased 3.1 percent last year at this time. The U.S. is dependent on imported goods, though, so cargo volume is unlikely to take a significant …
The Inland Empire has experienced a significant uptick in multifamily development in the past decade. We are currently seeing a healthy shift toward more units being developed, which is driven by substantial regional economic growth in the years following the recession. Multifamily development has grown from less than 2,000 units annually in 2009 to more than 5,000 units developed this year. The Inland Empire has one of the highest imbalances of housing in comparison to significant population growth and increasing renters’ demand, according to CBRE research. The Inland Empire market currently has 15 developments with a total of 3,445 units under construction. Significant developments are taking place in key cities like Ontario and Rancho Cucamonga. This is partially driven by the nearby Ontario International Airport, as well as Ontario’s position as a major logistics, warehousing and shipping hub. Market rents support the much-needed new supply. The City of Riverside currently has 595 units under construction. Riverside has the highest population in the Inland Empire, with consistent population growth over the past decade. An additional 391 units are under construction in Moreno Valley, which is also buoyed by its growth as a regional logistic center, with new industrial warehouse development adding …
Employers throughout Orange County continue to seek ways to attract and retain the best and brightest talent as unemployment dropped to 2.4 percent in the second quarter, below both the California and U.S. rates. That, in turn, has resulted in landlords reinvesting in their properties, providing creative and flexible work spaces, and offering a variety of onsite amenities and service that help companies fulfill that goal. Landlords continue to seek out creative competitive advantages by improving the actual employee experience within the workplace. This often results in amenities like gyms, fitness classes, outdoor work areas, restaurants and collaborative open spaces. Add to that complimentary concierge and personal services, dog-friendly campuses, onsite hosted events and entertainment opportunities and it’s evident to see that property owners are stepping up their tenant services game, thereby enhancing employee innovation and productivity in the workplace. With all that in mind, three new office projects completed construction in the second quarter. FLIGHT at Tustin Legacy added 457,217 square feet of unique, creative office space with 26 percent already pre-leased. The major warehouse-to-office conversion project at 2722 Michelson was delivered fully leased to Anduril, an aerospace defense firm, which subsequently subleased 47,733 square feet to advertising technology …
Despite the headwinds facing retail real estate, including the continued rise of ecommerce, the Orange County retail market remains resilient. Statistics are favorable. Vacancy is low at 3.7 percent and average market rent is $32.29 per square foot, up 1.15 percent from last year. Cap rates remain nearly 200 basis points below the national average, signaling buyer sentiment that OC retail is a relatively safe haven. Ground-up development is slow and selective, shoring up demand and keeping rates up for the foreseeable future. The interesting thing is that the market trends are pervasive. Let’s identify a few. Drive-thru restaurants are on fire. Tenants like Chick Fil-A, Raising Cane’s, Starbucks, In-N-Out, Panera and others are performing much higher in SoCal as compared to the rest of the country. Good sites are commanding competition, driving ground rents and drive-thru build-to-suit rents higher each of the past three years. Fitness, grocery, discount and entertainment uses are the most active players in the box category. It’s amazing to think the 1.5 million square feet of big boxes that were dumped on the market in 2017 and 2018 are now mostly accounted for thanks to these new users. EOS Fitness, Planet Fitness, ALDI, Burlington, At …
Orange County’s multifamily market fundamentals remain some of the strongest in the country as local real estate investors brace for new state-wide rent control policies beginning Jan. 1, 2020. There will undoubtedly be an education process for landlords regarding this new law and how it may impact the valuation of multifamily in the future, but the long-term stability of the overall apartment market looks bright. Orange County boasts historically low unemployment and low apartment vacancy, but the region continues to have a shortfall in the development of workforce housing. Orange County is expected to deliver about 2,900 new Class A units to the market in 2019, about 500 units more than last year. With an extended economic expansion throughout Southern California, Orange County has benefitted greatly with large segments of its population fully employed and seeking places to live. The county has one of the nation’s highest median home prices at more than $833,000, making homeownership unattainable for many of its residents. This workforce housing shortfall will continue to put further pressure on the demand in Orange County as its apartment average vacancy rate is anticipated to drop 40 basis points to a very low 3.4 percent in 2019. This …
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