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The Creative Trend Continues in Orange County

Taylor Williams — Sat, 01 Feb 2020 13:09:46 +0000

Orange County continues to be a diverse marketplace for commercial real estate as we reflect back on 2019. Thanks to a growing and varied workforce made up of highly skilled and educated workers — with tech and life sciences at the forefront of transactions — the county’s economy remains strong. Looking ahead, Orange County’s local market is very resilient, despite the fact that economy leasing volume has slowed as tenants are focusing on space-efficient decisions. This market continues to remain stable thanks to a number of existing buildings that have been or are currently under renovation to meet the demand of companies that are branching out from traditional office space. A few of these repositioned properties include the Launch, the Met, 2722 Michelson Drive and the Press, which is currently under construction in Costa Mesa. Overall vacancy in the county has been 13.8 percent, while overall asking rental rates are $2.95 per square foot (full-service gross) with Class A rates sitting at $3.23 per square foot. Some submarkets are home to the majority of this activity, including the Airport area and South Orange County due to ideal geographic locations for businesses and new office development. Of course, fundamentals vary by…

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Orange County’s Multifamily Market Continues to Grow

Taylor Williams — Fri, 31 Jan 2020 13:14:35 +0000

Orange County’s multifamily housing market remained exceptionally strong throughout 2019. The average asking rent closed the quarter at $2,055 per unit, up 3.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2018. This was the highest asking rent on record, up 34.5 percent from the prior peak reached in the third quarter of 2008. The Central submarket saw the largest year-over-year rental rate increase, with the asking rent there rising 3.8 percent to $1,920 per unit. This quarter, the Irvine submarket also saw its average asking rent adjust a bit, down 0.7 percent from the prior quarter to $2,446 per unit as existing inventory competed with new construction added to the market. However, the average rent in Irvine is up 3.2 percent from last year. Completed construction has pushed vacancy up. The total vacancy rate in Orange County this quarter registered 4.8 percent, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter, steady from the fourth quarter of 2018. Four significant projects totaling 2,567 units were completed this quarter. This includes Promenade at Irvine Spectrum with 1,781 units; SkyLoft, a 388-unit development in Irvine; the Charlie Orange County, a 228-unit complex in Santa Ana; and the Murphy, a 170-unit complex in Irvine. Annual…

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Orange County’s Industrial Market Stays Healthy Going Into 2020

Taylor Williams — Sat, 25 Jan 2020 13:16:25 +0000

Demand for Orange County industrial space remained healthy in 2019 as vacancy rates ended another year in record-low territory at 2.9 percent, fueled by a strong second-half net absorption. The movement in the second half of 2019 was largely a result of the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low, which provided assurance for buyers that had been on the fence. The attractive interest rates have led to steady price increases, however, adaptation has been slow. The average time on the market has increased by roughly 30 to 60 days from 2018. Many buyers also struggled with post-close deferred maintenance. With the typical industrial building in Orange County being construction in 1985, buyers are often challenged with renovation costs adding to their bottom lines. Meanwhile, landlords in 2019 became more conservative in rent demands as average gains in asking full-service rents fell to 4.2 percent countywide, compared to 4.9 percent in 2018. Leasing activity remained steady with an average asking rate across Orange County of about $1 per square foot, triple net. A handful of notable new construction projects advanced in 2019. In the fourth quarter, 10 buildings totaling nearly 1.2 million square feet were completed in North Orange County,…

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Orange County’s Retail Transaction Volume, Consistency Will Continue in 2020

Taylor Williams — Fri, 24 Jan 2020 13:26:03 +0000

Retail transaction volume was strong in January as the shorter 2019 holiday season created a tight window for year-end closings, residual transactions pushed into the New Year and gave 2020 an early jump on what should be another great year. Total transactions in 2020 should continue to build from the big start. The massive transaction volume from the second half of 2019 — more specifically, a glut of fourth-quarter sellers — has produced a wave of investors needing to complete 1031 exchange purchases in the second and third quarters of 2020. By comparison, 2019 featured a slower than typical start due to a combination of elevated interest rates and residual investor hangover from the equity markets debacle of the fourth quarter of 2018. Our sense is that 2020 will benefit from enormous velocity, driven by private investor demand and seller willingness to meet market expectations in favor of quicker transactions as fears of the late cycle, election turmoil and international unrest grow. Further evidence of seller’s alignment with market expectations, trailing available data has shown the asking price to sale ratio narrowed from nearly 12 percent in first-quarter 2019 to 3 percent in fourth-quarter 2019. This brought the bid/ask more…

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Inland Empire Retail Market Remains Steady Despite Big Box Closures

Taylor Williams — Fri, 06 Dec 2019 12:34:42 +0000

Southern California’s Inland Empire region has enjoyed a sustained period of growth in the retail real estate sector. Good spaces in quality centers are leasing quickly. Although new developments have slowed, there is still about 1.2 million square feet of new space under construction. These are all top-tier projects that will very much enhance the communities where they are being built. Projects include a Sprouts-anchored center in Eastvale, a Grocery Outlet/Planet Fitness center in Beaumont, an Aldi-anchored center in Hesperia, a Stater Bros. center in Calimesa, AMC Theaters at Montclair Place in Montclair and a Cardenas grocery market center in Montclair. Conversely, apart from the Inland Empire, there are likely few other areas that were as impacted by the recent store closure announcements from Sears and Forever 21. Closings will occur in Montclair, San Bernardino, Victorville, Moreno Valley, Palm Desert, Riverside, Temecula and Rancho Mirage. All told, more than 900,000 square feet of big box space just hit the market. The Inland Center Mall in San Bernardino, which has been a very healthy property over the past few years, is dealing with both a Sears and Forever 21 closure. Macy’s and JC Penney (opened in 2016) still remain at the…

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Los Angeles, Orange County Look to Inland Empire for Industrial Needs

Taylor Williams — Sat, 30 Nov 2019 12:38:25 +0000

The Inland Empire industrial market signaled that it may be transitioning toward slower growth in the second half of the year. Leasing volume declined sharply to nearly 7.8 million square feet, which is the lowest volume seen in a single quarter since 2011. New construction deliveries pushed the average rent to the highest level on record — $0.86 per square foot. Of the 13.7 million square feet completed year to date, 32 percent remained available at the end of the quarter. Despite the deliveries, vacancy remained steady at 4.5 percent since the third quarter of 2018, proving demand for industrial space in the Inland Empire is still present. The U.S. economy may be facing a drop off after climbing steadily for the past 10 years. The trade war and tariffs are undoubtedly influencing the ports’ cargo volume, which supports industrial demand in the Inland Empire. Retailers usually prepare for increased sales during the holiday season by increasing imports in July and August. However, imports through August 2019 were down 2.4 percent from 2018. Imports had increased 3.1 percent last year at this time. The U.S. is dependent on imported goods, though, so cargo volume is unlikely to take a significant…

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The Inland Empire Is a Hotbed of Multifamily Development

Taylor Williams — Fri, 29 Nov 2019 12:41:13 +0000

The Inland Empire has experienced a significant uptick in multifamily development in the past decade. We are currently seeing a healthy shift toward more units being developed, which is driven by substantial regional economic growth in the years following the recession. Multifamily development has grown from less than 2,000 units annually in 2009 to more than 5,000 units developed this year. The Inland Empire has one of the highest imbalances of housing in comparison to significant population growth and increasing renters’ demand, according to CBRE research. The Inland Empire market currently has 15 developments with a total of 3,445 units under construction. Significant developments are taking place in key cities like Ontario and Rancho Cucamonga. This is partially driven by the nearby Ontario International Airport, as well as Ontario’s position as a major logistics, warehousing and shipping hub. Market rents support the much-needed new supply. The City of Riverside currently has 595 units under construction. Riverside has the highest population in the Inland Empire, with consistent population growth over the past decade. An additional 391 units are under construction in Moreno Valley, which is also buoyed by its growth as a regional logistic center, with new industrial warehouse development adding…

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Landlords Emphasize Top-Quality Amenities, Services in OC’s Office Market

Taylor Williams — Sat, 23 Nov 2019 12:53:39 +0000

Employers throughout Orange County continue to seek ways to attract and retain the best and brightest talent as unemployment dropped to 2.4 percent in the second quarter, below both the California and U.S. rates. That, in turn, has resulted in landlords reinvesting in their properties, providing creative and flexible work spaces, and offering a variety of onsite amenities and service that help companies fulfill that goal. Landlords continue to seek out creative competitive advantages by improving the actual employee experience within the workplace. This often results in amenities like gyms, fitness classes, outdoor work areas, restaurants and collaborative open spaces. Add to that complimentary concierge and personal services, dog-friendly campuses, onsite hosted events and entertainment opportunities and it’s evident to see that property owners are stepping up their tenant services game, thereby enhancing employee innovation and productivity in the workplace. With all that in mind, three new office projects completed construction in the second quarter. FLIGHT at Tustin Legacy added 457,217 square feet of unique, creative office space with 26 percent already pre-leased. The major warehouse-to-office conversion project at 2722 Michelson was delivered fully leased to Anduril, an aerospace defense firm, which subsequently subleased 47,733 square feet to advertising technology…

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Orange County Tenants, Landlords Embrace the New Retail Norm

Taylor Williams — Fri, 22 Nov 2019 12:57:15 +0000

Despite the headwinds facing retail real estate, including the continued rise of ecommerce, the Orange County retail market remains resilient. Statistics are favorable. Vacancy is low at 3.7 percent and average market rent is $32.29 per square foot, up 1.15 percent from last year. Cap rates remain nearly 200 basis points below the national average, signaling buyer sentiment that OC retail is a relatively safe haven. Ground-up development is slow and selective, shoring up demand and keeping rates up for the foreseeable future. The interesting thing is that the market trends are pervasive. Let’s identify a few. Drive-thru restaurants are on fire. Tenants like Chick Fil-A, Raising Cane’s, Starbucks, In-N-Out, Panera and others are performing much higher in SoCal as compared to the rest of the country. Good sites are commanding competition, driving ground rents and drive-thru build-to-suit rents higher each of the past three years. Fitness, grocery, discount and entertainment uses are the most active players in the box category. It’s amazing to think the 1.5 million square feet of big boxes that were dumped on the market in 2017 and 2018 are now mostly accounted for thanks to these new users. EOS Fitness, Planet Fitness, ALDI, Burlington, At…

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Orange County Braces for Rent Control, Continued Affordability Issues

Taylor Williams — Sat, 16 Nov 2019 13:01:47 +0000

Orange County’s multifamily market fundamentals remain some of the strongest in the country as local real estate investors brace for new state-wide rent control policies beginning Jan. 1, 2020. There will undoubtedly be an education process for landlords regarding this new law and how it may impact the valuation of multifamily in the future, but the long-term stability of the overall apartment market looks bright. Orange County boasts historically low unemployment and low apartment vacancy, but the region continues to have a shortfall in the development of workforce housing. Orange County is expected to deliver about 2,900 new Class A units to the market in 2019, about 500 units more than last year. With an extended economic expansion throughout Southern California, Orange County has benefitted greatly with large segments of its population fully employed and seeking places to live. The county has one of the nation’s highest median home prices at more than $833,000, making homeownership unattainable for many of its residents. This workforce housing shortfall will continue to put further pressure on the demand in Orange County as its apartment average vacancy rate is anticipated to drop 40 basis points to a very low 3.4 percent in 2019. This…

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San Diego Retail Development Continues — Strategically

Taylor Williams — Sat, 28 Sep 2019 12:12:53 +0000

Whether it’s existing properties, new development, redevelopment or a repositioning effort, the key to success in San Diego’s retail market is to focus on customer experience. You have to make it attractive for them to come out from behind their computer screens, go outside, get some fresh air, look a total stranger in the eye and be social. The market is dominated by the coastal areas between Little Italy and Carlsbad. Primary core centers that are well located and occupied with strong daily needs anchors have the most fundamental stability. Secondary centers in beach-area submarkets have some vacancies but are attractive to tenants due to their proximity to the areas with the highest disposable incomes. Investors of tertiary centers, for the most part, are looking for ways to make their centers’ relevant, with forward-thinking owners investing capital to incorporate a mixed-use component like office, hotel or multifamily. Consumers in San Diego want a vibrant, inviting center with a superior customer experience immersed in beautiful landscape under the sun. The key is having a retail environment with premier anchors to get the customer to the center, along with a great mix of tenants and events to keep the customer at the…

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San Diego’s Office Market Shows Strong Fundamentals, Continued Creativity

Taylor Williams — Fri, 27 Sep 2019 12:16:59 +0000

The outlook for San Diego’s office market is sunny and bright. Often considered a less costly option for office users as compared to other Southern California markets, San Diego holds consistent appeal for tenants seeking a coastal address where the weather is mild and the vibe is entrepreneurial and business friendly. The market is following the national trend of stronger occupancy rates and robust absorption, buoyed by a healthy economy. At 10.2 percent in the second quarter — the lowest level in nearly 14 years — San Diego’s office vacancy rate beats the national office vacancy rate of 12 percent — the lowest level in 18 years, despite construction. These fundamentals are demonstrating increased tenant demand. We’re continuing to see growth and expansion of office in submarkets throughout San Diego County. Sorrento Valley is one of the stronger office submarkets due to its centralized location and accessibility to major freeways. Other submarkets with heightened demand are Del Mar Heights, which is close to the ocean and suburban areas that house corporate executives, and Kearny Mesa, another major business center for the county. Carlsbad and Oceanside in North County and Chula Vista in South County are also popular choices. Oceanside and…

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All Signs Point to a Comeback for San Diego Apartment Investment Sales in 2019-2020

Taylor Williams — Sat, 21 Sep 2019 12:20:42 +0000

While Proposition 10 — California’s proposal to strengthen rent control — was defeated last November, it somewhat stifled the multifamily investment sector in San Diego as investors worked to figure out the next wave of opportunity. But now that market is starting to bounce back. Total multifamily sales volume in 2018 was just under $2 billion. However, several signs pointed to a resilient San Diego market, including cap rates holding steady at 4.6 percent and an increase in pricing. The tides have begun to turn in the past few months, with numerous apartment deals on the market — more than we’ve seen at one time in the past few years. This is especially true in Downtown San Diego where a significant number of new merchant-built deals are expected to come to market, continuing throughout the year. These are luxury complexes, with some expected to fetch as much as $600,000 per unit. Six conventional multifamily sales (with at least 100 units) closed in the first half of this year, totaling $550 million. This is an increase over the four sales totaling $372.5 million in the first half of 2018. The median price per unit through mid-year was $258,200, although roughly one-quarter…

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Plenty of Sunshine Remains in San Diego’s Industrial Market

Taylor Williams — Fri, 20 Sep 2019 12:30:25 +0000

The San Diego industrial market is still thriving under sunny skies. The 146-million-square-foot industrial base is more than 95 percent occupied. Businesses continue to gobble up space even though rents have grown 6 percent to 8 percent annually since 2015. Though industrial markets around the country continue to do well thanks to a rapidly expanding logistics sector, San Diego’s industrial growth is broader based. Major contributions come from the defense, tech, electronics, cross-border commerce and biotech sectors. San Diego has several large submarkets, each with its own set of opportunities and challenges. South County, which includes Otay Mesa, has seen the strongest rent growth during the current economic recovery. Since the beginning of 2018, more than 591,000 square feet of state-of-the-art distribution space has been completed, with all but 45,000 square feet fully leased up. Recent transactions in Otay include a 198,000-square-foot lease to Zucarmex and the 174,000-square-foot expansion of US Joiner Trident Marine. The vacancy rate for South County stands at 4.33 percent, slightly under the countywide rate. Vacancy in North County is running somewhat higher at 6.72 percent. This is mainly due to recent deliveries in Carlsbad. A little more than 2.2 million square feet of new space…

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San Diego’s Multifamily Market Outpaces Its 2018 Performance

Taylor Williams — Sat, 14 Sep 2019 12:33:20 +0000

San Diego continues to exhibit very strong fundamentals with a healthy and diversified economy, as well as a continued shortage of housing supply. The unemployment rate of 3.3 percent is below both the California and national unemployment rate. Tourism, biotech, healthcare, education, military/defense, drone manufacturing, business services, software and other high-tech industries have made San Diego a magnet for venture capital and other business investment, creating the jobs of the future. Amazon, Apple and several other high-profile technology companies have also announced expansions in San Diego. The region attracted $744 million in venture capital this past year alone. Local housing policies, which have been unfriendly to new development, have made it very expensive to build, thereby perpetuating the shortage of housing. This dynamic has continued to bode well for multifamily investment in the region. CBRE’s Apartment Market Report for the end of the second quarter illustrates the following year-on-year changes from 2018: • The vacancy rate moved 9 basis points to 3.6 percent • Rental rates increased by 2.9 percent • New construction deliveries dropped by 14 percent • Sales volume included 95 transactions with a total dollar volume of $476 million (compared to 32 sales transactions last year that…

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San Francisco’s Office Market is More Boom than Bust

Taylor Williams — Fri, 13 Sep 2019 12:36:23 +0000

San Francisco has been a boom-and-bust market since the Gold Rush. The current intense scrutiny of the yield curve, combined with the stock market’s recent erratic behavior, has sent warnings of the next looming recession. Just how will this affect the office market? Fortunately for the Bay Area, not much. Today, several key factors insulate San Francisco from a severe downturn, unlike past cycles. Among them are Proposition M and a concentration of venture capital, highly skilled talent and some of the world’s largest companies. Since 1986, Proposition M has limited the amount of office development the city will authorize in any given year. The program aims to guard against typical boom-and-bust cycles. The San Francisco office market only includes 85 million square feet, as opposed to Manhattan or Houston, for example, which comprise 400 million and 240 million square feet, respectively. Manhattan currently has 12.4 million square feet of office space under construction, while San Francisco has 3 million square feet in the pipeline. The entitlement limit under Prop M has been reached, meaning no additional new projects can be approved until October when another 950,000 square feet will be allocated for the next year. At first glance, these…

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Multifamily Activity Is Strong in Northern California…For Now

Taylor Williams — Sat, 07 Sep 2019 12:39:11 +0000

Northern California’s multifamily market has a strong development pipeline right now, but after 2020, it drops off dramatically. There is an increasingly toxic political climate in California, with measures like AB 1482 and the revival of Prop 10, which will likely throw a wrench in any planned development beyond 2020. Some of the most notable projects currently underway include Brooklyn Basin’s Orion in Oakland. The first 241 units out of a planned 3,700 have been completed. Brooklyn Basin is a $1.5 billion project that is reshaping the Oakland waterfront and transforming the area into a new, vibrant neighborhood. In San Jose, the area around the proposed Google downtown campus is also on everyone’s radar. The majority of current Bay Area development is concentrated in Oakland and Santa Clara County, with the latter currently experiencing a 4.57 percent vacancy rate. Market fundamentals, including proximity to jobs and a more welcoming environment toward multifamily development have attracted developers and renters alike to these two places. Developers Carmel Partner, Hanover and Holland have been particularly active in Oakland, as of late. Current conditions in Northern California have produced a tenant’s market, with an abundance of new units coming online at once. We are…

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Trends in Northern California Retail Echo Changes Occurring Nationally

Taylor Williams — Fri, 06 Sep 2019 11:42:31 +0000

Northern California’s retail real estate market is undergoing somewhat of a seismic shift. Traditional shopping centers, such as Serramonte Mall in Daly City and Hillsdale Mall in San Mateo, are seeing name-brand retailers like Payless Shoesource, Gymboree and Charlotte Russe closing stores. This has dictated a recalibration in leasing strategy. , These “prime” retail spaces are often successfully backfilled by business and lifestyle tenants like professional service firms, fitness centers, coffee shops, restaurants and entertainment centers — the sort of businesses that can regain foot traffic. This trend toward more lifestyle and entertainment tenants — often called experiential retail — can also be seen in the region’s vibrant market for new mixed-use developments. Multifamily communities in San Francisco, Cupertino, Santa Clara and Oakland will be delivered in the coming months. Many of these projects are urban infill, transit-oriented developments, which naturally offer strong street-level retail locations. In this setting, experiential retail works well for apartment residents and local foot traffic. Nearly 6 million square feet of new office has been proposed in downtown San Jose, which is driving strong retail interest from new restaurants and service retail. Vacancy rates for retail properties throughout the Bay Area have ticked up slightly,…

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Tech Continues to Bolster Bay Area’s Surrounding Industrial Basin

Taylor Williams — Sun, 01 Sep 2019 12:45:33 +0000

Class A product is going off the market fast in Northern California’s industrial basin. Older product is sitting on the market longer, while mid-sized spaces are still the East Bay’s bread and butter. Net absorption has been pegged on a negative trend due to new construction and the volume of deals slowing down. Certain products are giving concessions to compete with newer product, while some landlords are trying to push the market limits to see how heavy tenant’s pockets really are. Several significant leases were signed in the East Bay during the second quarter of 2019. The largest deal of the quarter belonged to Service West, a furniture installer that signed a renewal and expansion totaling 252,021 square feet in San Leandro at 2350 Williams Street. Javelin Logistics, a logistics and distribution provider, also inked a new lease for 134,279 square feet at 7091 Central Ave. in Newark. Confluent Medical had the largest research and development deal of the second quarter, totaling 65,385 square feet. The material science tech company renewed at 47513 Westinghouse Drive in Fremont. The most significant investment sale of the second quarter occurred at 44100 and 44200 Osgood Road in Fremont. This is where Western Digital…

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Los Angeles’ Office Craving Shows No Sign of Satiation

Taylor Williams — Sat, 13 Jul 2019 11:54:20 +0000

The Los Angeles office market ended the first quarter with the average asking rent steady over the prior quarter. However, at $3.20 per square foot, the average asking rent remains the highest level on record, up 4.2 percent over the first quarter of 2018 and 15 percent above the prior peak reached in 2008. While the vacancy rate this quarter increased 30 basis points over the prior quarter, it is down 10 basis points from Q1 2018 at 10.6 percent. This is about where it was pre-recession in 2004. This rise in vacancy was the result of several large move-outs, including about 200,000 square feet in the South Bay and 50,000 square feet in the Central office markets. Leasing volume fell to 5.8 million square feet, down 19.6 percent from the prior quarter and 7.9 percent from Q1 2018. The rate of job growth is having some impact on the office market. Los Angeles County remains near full employment with the unemployment rate at 4.6 percent, one of the lowest rates on record. The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) notes the county added 59,000 jobs in 2018. The latest LAEDC jobs forecast points to a strong and steady…

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