Resilient apartment demand will continue to insulate the Los Angeles apartment market from the effects of the uneven recovery, though modest downside economic risks will persist. For example, the Eurozone crisis and economic slowdown in China – the Port of Los Angeles’ largest foreign trading partner – will limit imports and exports and moderate overall employment gains. Local manufacturers have already shed 5,000 jobs in 2012, and 2,400 transportation and utility positions were eliminated in the past two months. Nevertheless, metro-wide employment expanded by more than 40,000 jobs in the past six months, a growth of 1.1 percent compared to 0.6 percent nationally. Additionally, gains have been relatively broad-based. The professional and business services, as well as education and health services industries, have added 25,000 jobs since the start of 2012. Resurgent tourism has also boosted leisure and hospitality payrolls by more than 10,000 workers. Rehiring, combined with a still weak demand for single-family homes, has supported apartment leasing. Asking rents have particularly improved. In the first half of 2012, market-wide asking rents appreciated 5 percent to $1,730 per month, compared to a gain of 3 percent for all of last year. Rent increases have been particularly robust in the …
California
New multifamily developments are springing up throughout San Diego County. Strengthening apartment market fundamentals and rising demand are among the many reasons why investors view this as the perfect time to capitalize on development. There are currently more than 1,500 multifamily units under construction and slated for completion by the end of this year in the county — more than triple the amount of new units delivered in 2011, according to RealFacts. Developers are finding a more cost-effective approach to investing in this market by purchasing land for development as opposed to buying existing apartments and refurbishing. However, finding suitable land for development remains a challenge. Locations throughout the county attracting the highest developer interest and already witnessing new construction activity are centrally located, mixed-use urban areas. This is no surprise as walkability and easy access to transportation is highly sought after by the younger generation of renters. This population is currently estimated to be more than 959,000 strong — larger than that of the Baby Boomer population, according to SANDAG. A number of projects have broken ground in the Downtown market, primarily in Little Italy and East Village, as developers take advantage of the area’s unique characteristics. Two notable …
San Diego’s retail market has remained relatively level for the past year in regards to leasing and sales of shopping centers. Last year the vacancy rate for San Diego hovered around 5.2 percent and currently is positioned at 5.1 percent. This will probably remain the same throughout the remainder of this year as we continue to see very few additional centers being built. A steady flow of tenants are also closing their doors as new tenants and entrepreneurs venture into new careers. Sales activity from the beginning of this year has been slightly slower but slightly better on a per-square-foot number than the same period one year ago. Year-to-date, we have seen 15 sales of centers that are larger than 10,000 square feet, with an average price per square foot of $193.50 and an average cap rate of 7.24 percent. This is compared to the same period last year which produced 22 sales at an average price per square foot of $170.39 and an average cap rate of 7.6 percent. As far as credit-tenant, triple-net investments in San Diego go, there is still a very strong demand for any product that comes on the market and typically results in multiple …
Retail leasing in the Inland Empire is slowly meandering its way back to a healthy stride. The gamut of activity is still centered around the best opportunities and the strongest centers, but occupancy levels are stabilizing and overall there is a sense of cautious optimism. The retail vacancy rate has remained flat for the past two quarters of 2011 at 8.8 percent. This is a positive trend, however, compared to rates of 11 percent and higher over the past few years. We have also seen new tenants expanding within this market, taking advantage of a lenient leasing climate and landlords anxious to fill their centers. Tenants like Family Dollar, Dollar General, Fallas Paredes, Chase, America’s Tire, O’Reilly, Autozone, Pep Boys, $99 Cents Only, Planet Fitness and Crunch Fitness are actively pursuing junior anchor and pad buildings in shopping centers. Meanwhile, Forever 21, T.J. Maxx, Steinmart, Hobby Lobby and even Kaiser Permanente have absorbed some of the largest vacancies in this market over the past year. Wal-Mart has broken ground on sites in the Victorville trade area and more are on the way, including a few Neighborhood Market locations that Wal-Mart has secured over the past year. While this is positive …
Property performance improved meaningfully with both vacancy and concessions trending lower in 2011. Asking rents ticked up 2.7 percent to $1,084 per month during that span. Furthermore, the 6,400 fewer jobs recorded during the first half of 2011 was offset by the hiring of 29,000 workers over the final two quarters. These gains supported a 29.5 percent increase in deal flow to 57 sales. However, the prevalence of small acquisitions caused a 13.2 percent dip in dollar volume to $500.5 million last year. New apartment completions, as well as permits issued, were the lowest annual total on record in more than 15 years. The Inland Empire will follow economic growth patterns more reflective of national trends through 2012 and into the future. It will not be returning to the iconic growth that characterized the region from the early years of the past decade up to 2007, when the last notable expansion firmly cemented the metro area as one of the nation's top economic engines of the time. As the region continues to mature, with vast swaths of land developed over the past decade for infrastructure, housing and distribution centers, one of its key growth drivers, construction, is apt to remain …
For tenants, this slower sector correction and still attractive rents will make for great opportunities in this area in 2012. The competitive rental rates are not expected to tick up by much, but will probably stabilize after hitting bottom in select submarkets. They will offer a wide choice of options for relocating tenants. Concessions will remain generous to secure the best tenants in the market. Over the short term, the Orange County office outlook will remain a tenant’s market. The average overall full-service gross (FSG) asking rent in Orange County during 2011 was $1.95, dropping from near $2 the previous year. The trend of Class B users jumping to attractively priced Class A product will continue in the first half of 2012. This effort to reduce expenses, while landing better operational locations, will still be very popular. Expect to see some tenants that were on the sidelines in 2011 now ready to make a move. These national and regional occupiers are sophisticated and will be looking for experts with the talent and expertise to focus on their specific needs and their unique corporate expansion requirements/considerations. However, even with slightly increased activity, the pace of demand will appear low by historical …
With 95 percent occupancy, the Orange County industrial market is shining through the clouds of what is still a semi-lethargic market in many areas. It’s well known that industrial real estate is a solid investment option that is safer than many other investment vehicles. Combine that with Orange County’s reputation as a place that people love to work and live, and it’s no surprise the county’s industrial market is successfully rebounding. Industrial buyers were not just cautious in 2008 and 2009, they were literally standing on the sidelines waiting for the game to resume. The trough of the market really hit in 2009, which was probably the lowest point anyone could have bought a building, but with values down 35 percent to 40 percent, deals just weren’t being made. Since mid-2010, however, the Orange County industrial market has seen a significant increase in activity as buyers put themselves back in the game. Sellers have become sellers again, and buyers are more realistic about getting deals done. orporate America recognized the trend early on and began making deals. From there, the competition has heated up on the Orange County industrial playing field, as numerous investors seek to acquire Class A and …
The Orange County hotel market held up extremely well during the economic recession. We are now seeing average daily rate (ADR) and occupancy levels at or above the 2007 peaks. The Smith Travel Research (STR) statistics through October 2011 show the county’s beach areas reporting a $164.41 ADR at 71.3 percent occupancy with a $117.25 revenue per available room (Rev PAR). The beach area’s Rev PAR is now just under 12 percent below the 2007 market peak. We forecast that we will back to or above the peak levels in 2012. In the Disneyland area, we see an ADR of $128.02 at 73.6 percent occupancy with a $94.22 Rev PAR. This Rev PAR is already 6.7 percent above the 2007 peak and climbing. There are a number of reasons why we’re seeing such strong performance numbers in Orange County. These include: (i) The increase in domestic travel, with many travelers choosing to stay in the United States instead of going abroad (ii) The increase in international travel due to the relative weakness of the U.S. dollar, making Orange County a prime destination (iii) The complete lack of new hotel development, which has created a growing demand that has helped fuel …
The multifamily market continues to be the strongest performing real estate market in Orange County. With the support of strong fundamentals and forecasts, investors are flocking to multifamily investments, especially properties located in core cities. As the for-sale residential market remains uncertain, much of the Orange County population is choosing to lease, which has been a big driver following the economic recession. The vacancy rate stands at 4.5 percent, which accounts for a 20 basis point drop from the previous quarter’s rate of 4.7 percent and a 140 basis point decline from the 5.9 percent recorded one year earlier. This was the third consecutive quarter that witnessed a decline in vacancy. These rates haven’t been this low since the second quarter of 2008. Although vacancy has dropped considerably since it peaked of 6.4 percent during the third quarter of 2009 through the second quarter of 2010, it remains higher than the low point of 3.2 percent, which occurred in the third quarter of 2007. Rental rates have also increased as vacancies have filled. The average effective monthly rent is $1,488, which represents a slight increase from the $1,478 recorded during the previous quarter and an even bigger increase from the …
CBRE recently completed a comprehensive study on the state of big box vacancy in Orange County. It showed that while the county continues its struggle to replace large tenants lost during the recession, there is progress being made in this important sector of the retail market, particularly in Class A locations. There are currently 59 big box vacancies (20,000 square feet or larger) in 55 centers with a total of 2.3 million square feet within the county. In the past two years, approximately 1.6 million square feet of big box retail has been absorbed. The question now is, what’s left and when will it be absorbed? Since the downturn, retailers have had their pick of great real estate. Class A space that was near impossible to find in Orange County during the boom years became available for the first time. The most active retailers, including Wal-Mart, Kohls, grocers and gyms, moved quickly to take advantage of the opportunities. In many cases, these retailers even modified their prototypes in order to do so. With most of the Class A space quickly absorbed, our study found that 48 of the 59 boxes currently remaining, or 84 percent, are located in B or …