There is no denying that the industrial market in the Inland Empire is improving. In the past three quarters, a great deal of space has been leased, and vacancy is therefore down. Voit’s first quarter industrial market report revealed that vacancy rates have declined to 8.95 percent in the market, down from 11.55 percent year-over-year, in large part because ten buildings over 500,000 square feet have been leased in the last three quarters. There is actually now a shortage of buildings in this size range. Big Buildings Make a Comeback As occupancy increases, lease rates are rising. This excites developers and investors alike. On the development side, the market is seeing speculative development for the first time in three years in certain size ranges — a huge indication of an improving marketplace. At least four industrial buildings are either under construction or in pre-development in the Inland Empire right now. Watson Land Company recently broke ground on a 600,000 square-foot building in Redlands, while the O’Donnell Group has broken ground on a 786,000-square-foot building in Banning. In addition, at least two others in the 600,000 to 700,000-square-foot range are now ready to break ground. While excitement grows around new projects, …
California
The Los Angeles creative office market sector was certainly not immune to the timid economy, which continued during the third quarter. The limited number of creative companies experiencing growth through this period was limited and representative of the economy as a whole. However, the creative product type — the preferred space sought by the production, post-production, advertising/marketing and even technology sectors — was also surprisingly supply constrained. Due in large part to the lack of new construction or large-scale conversion of old industrial buildings into creative office, tenants entering the marketplace with hopes of finding numerous attractive options and generous business terms in a more tenant-favored climate instead found limited product to meet their needs from a functional and/or aesthetic standpoint. Although buoyed by a market that was experiencing meek demand, many businesses that view their office space as much in terms of the environment it creates for the attraction and retention of creative talent were prevented from realizing the true benefits of a tenant-favored market due to a lack of supply. Those that made moves during the end of 2009 and earlier this year absorbed much of the attractive, ready-for-occupancy space at more aggressive pricing from landlords looking to …
San Francisco is not immune to the forces of gravity, but sometimes it appears that might be true for the city's apartment market. Across the country, the multifamily sector has weathered the Great Recession better than other asset classes. Availability of capital — both equity and debt — has resulted in relatively modest value declines compared to office, industrial and retail investments. Transaction volume has been relatively robust, largely attributable to the disassembly and re-sale of the former Lembi portfolio. Research indicates that in excess of 50 apartment sales were completed in the first half of 2010, for a total value representing about $120 million. Among the most active buyers were Flynn Investments, Klingbeil Capital Management and Tribeca Cos. Expect market activity to remain level or even increase, as buyer appetite has yet to be satisfied. The rental market also seems to have stabilized. According to Novato, California-based RealFacts, a national leader in apartment industry research, rents in San Francisco are only down modestly since second quarter of 2009, but they are up slightly in the first half of 2010. While occupancy is reported to be at a relatively low 94 percent, we believe this state may be a temporary …
The Orange County industrial market continues to suffer from the effects of the national recession — widespread job losses, corporate downsizing, a lack of liquidity and an overall resetting of property values. Local businesses are postponing capital expenditures, reducing workforces and attempting to shed excess space, which has caused the availability rate for industrial product to increase by 70 percent since the first quarter of last year. North Orange County has experienced seven consecutive quarters of negative net absorption. The vacancy rate is just shy of 6 percent, while the availability rate is approaching 11 percent. The sharp increase in availability, coupled with an overall lack of demand, has created a tenant’s market where landlords are forced to be creative and are offering substantial rate reductions, free rent and moving allowances to entice tenants. Despite the aggressive attempts by landlords to lure tenants to their vacant buildings, many tenants do not have the confidence in their businesses to justify a large-scale move and are working with their existing landlords to complete short-term renewals. Although asking lease rates haven’t moved much given the lack of velocity and tenant demand, recently completed deals show that lease rates are down 25 to 30 …
The retail sector continues to struggle as consumer confidence remains relatively low. Until the job market perks up, Orange County residents will maintain low levels of spending. This nervous sentiment has crossed over to prospective investors in retail properties because of the potential for weak cash flow. Leasing activity is at a virtual standstill, with no anticipated movement for at least the next 6 to 9 months. With the exception of Kohl’s and Forever 21 leasing up former Mervyn’s stores and Marshalls taking up large space at previously occupied locations, most of the vacated big box spaces are sitting empty. As of August, the Orange County vacancy rate increased to 7.7 percent, up 8 percent from the previous quarter. Further evidence of a weak market, the average asking rent declined $0.05 to $2.56 per square foot from the previous quarter. Sales activity during the third quarter has lacked large trendsetting transactions. Due to rising vacancies and declining rental rates, potential investors have been hesitant to acquire large properties; this explains why most of the deals have been small or mid-sized. Cap rates have shifted from 5 percent during the market peak in 2007 to 8 percent or higher for large, …
The declining job market continues to take a toll on the Orange County multifamily sector. With unemployment reaching 9.6 percent in August, the market is showing little signs of life. Relief will not come until new jobs are created and the unemployment level begins to descend. Orange County’s apartment vacancy increased 36 percent during the 12 months following second quarter 2008, from 4.5 to 6.1 percent. Asking rents fell 1.9 percent since second quarter 2008, from $1,566 to $1,537, while effective rents during the same time frame decreased at a higher rate of 3.6 percent from $1,519 to $1,465. Despite the downturn in rental rates, tenants are vacating the apartment market in search of less expensive housing. Orange County residents are moving in with their parents, taking in roommates or seeking respite in neighboring markets or even out of state. Rising vacancies have led to a decline in values by more than 20 percent since 2007. According to CoStar’s year-to-date numbers, the average price per unit for buildings with 16 or more units is $129,704 with average cap rates at 7.83 percent, compared to 2007, when the average price per unit was $179,260 with average cap rates at 4.43 percent. …
National retailers have taken a step back this year and have begun looking at opening up new locations in the San Jose area in 2011 and 2012. There are fewer retailers currently active in the San Jose retail market, which can have a negative effect on the absorption of large blocks of space that come into the market as retailers downsize. Former Mervyns sites continue to be the largest weight in the market due to the substantial size of each space — sites average 85,000 square feet. It is difficult to find tenants to occupy the entire store, and it is often cost prohibitive to subdivide these properties. Retail vacancy increased in the second quarter of this year. Year-over-year, Silicon Valley’s overall vacancy rate has gone to 6 percent from 3 percent at the end of the first half of 2008. Anticipate retail vacancy to climb to 7.5 percent by year’s end. The good news is that compared with other retail markets on the West Coast, the Silicon Valley retail market has not experienced a tremendous amount of overbuilding. The amount of jobs lost so far has been less extreme when compared with San Francisco, San Mateo and Alameda. Since …
The capital market crash of 2007 and the global recession still cast a pall over Sacramento’s industrial landscape. Landlords are paying close attention to the State of California, the city’s biggest tenant, and its desire to extend leases where landlords will reduce rent (by up to 30 percent in some cases). There are no speculative developments of any significance underway in Sacramento and only a few are under development in the San Joaquin markets closer to the Bay Area, where greater population densities create some optimism. To date, the standout deal in Sacramento has been Buzz Oates Real Estate’s inking of Nestle Waters North America to a 215,000-square-foot deal on existing space at Younger Creek Drive in the Florin Fruitridge Industrial Park; the firm’s two-line bottling plant slated to open early next year. Sacramento’s traditional strength in securing large distribution commitments has recently been diverted south and west to Stockton, Tracy, Lathrop, Cordelia and as far south as Patterson. Dealmakers point to the availability of large tracts of land and closer proximity to bigger markets like the Bay Area and Southern California as key drivers. Right now, a geographic difference of 50 miles in one direction or the other is …
At nearly 1 billion square feet, the Los Angeles industrial market is one of the largest in the nation, and despite increasing vacancy in the past year, it remains one of the tightest. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated that 172,100 non-farm jobs were lost between July 2008 and July 2009. Industrial-oriented jobs have been among the hardest hit during the past 12 months, including losses in trade, transportation and utilities (39,900 jobs); manufacturing (36,200 jobs); and construction (18,000 jobs). Slowing trade and reduced consumer spending is largely responsible for lower industrial demand in 2009. At the Port of Los Angeles, year-to-date TEU volume through August was 18.3 percent lower than the same period in 2008; at the Port of Long Beach, the TEU volume has declined 21.7 percent from 2008 levels. Container activity at the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex peaked in 2006 when 15.76 million TEUs were handled. The forecast for 2009 is for 12.2 million TEUs, a decline of 22.6 percent. At mid-year 2009, total industrial vacancy in the area was 4.6 percent, up from 3.5 percent at the end of 2008. While vacancy remains low, availability has surpassed 9 percent, the highest rate in more …
Following trends in the domestic and global economy, conditions in the Los Angeles office market continued to deteriorate this summer. Los Angeles County’s unemployment rate reached 11.9 percent in July, up from 7.7 percent 1 year earlier, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that 172,100 non-farm jobs were lost between July 2008 and July 2009. Area companies have conceded to a difficult business environment and lower revenue forecasts by shedding employees in record numbers and, in turn, reducing their need for office space. At mid-year, total vacancy was 14.7 percent, up from 12.5 percent at the end of last year. The market experienced negative net absorption of 3.3 million square feet through the first half of the year, and preliminary third quarter data indicates that vacancy continues to rise, albeit at a slower pace than has been witnessed during the past 18 months. While previous real estate downturns in Los Angeles were triggered by excessive speculative office construction, the current rise in vacancy has stemmed from a collapse in demand. Construction has been relatively limited in the current cycle; however, a handful of large projects have been delivered this year, most notably The Pointe (480,000 square feet) and 2300 …