The Colorado Springs industrial market has trended positively over the past 10 years. Though it is a very gradual trend, we are now at a point where we anticipate the market to slow or level off. The market will not see a lot of change throughout 2020, though we expect the market to stay positive due to the lack of new construction, high costs, possible hesitancy related to elections and lack of available quality industrial product. The overall vacancy rate for the Colorado Springs industrial market started the year below 7 percent. That rate has dipped lower each quarter, nearing 5 percent at the end of 2019. We foresee room for the rate to continue dropping through 2020, but believe we may see a slight rise in the vacancy rate due to some new construction and existing occupants becoming more efficient with their spaces. This industrial market has not seen the amount of new construction needed over the past two years to keep pace with the high demand the market has experienced. This will impact growth and trends throughout 2020. There was roughly 72,000 square feet of new industrial product under construction during 2019. When it comes to new construction …
The past 10 years has brought population growth to Colorado, which many associate with Amendment 64, or the legalization of marijuana, along with an overall flat interest rate. The new issue is whether Colorado can sustain this growth, despite the heavy focus on affordability. So far, however, the state has experienced continued growth in population, income and multifamily sales volume, according to CoStar. Tapestry Segmentation also reports a median household income in the Greater Denver area of $76,094, which is 28 percent higher than the national figure reported by the U.S. Census. The Denver multifamily market is enticing to tenants as many view the option to lease as an easier path than purchasing a home. This, in turn, has enticed investors and developers to build due to demand. Investors also see opportunity in converting apartments to condos when the market shifts. At the same time, there are concerns that the Federal Reserve’s Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) policy could present uncertainty to the overarching environment. The intention of the IOER policy is to allow banks to have a lower reserve, which is intended to remove the volatility of interest rates. However, many experts are questioning if …
The Denver office market remains strong. Vacancy continued to compress in 2019 as rental rates and sale prices forged ahead to the highest levels in history, allowing landlords and sellers to remain in control of the market. Class A office transactions accounted for $1.7 billion in office sales in Denver Metro over the past year, versus $1.2 billion of Class B office sales, with average market cap rates of 6.6 percent and 7 percent, respectively. Interestingly enough, vacancy rates are higher in Class A product at 11.7 percent versus 10.1 percent in Class B. Sale prices and rental rates continued to grow in both classes. However, there was a significant difference in rental rate and sale price numbers as Class B lagged by about 20 percent to 25 percent in both categories. With a potential downturn looming, it begs the question, is Class A or Class B office a better long-term value? Considering rental rates and income are a direct derivative of what investors will pay for office buildings, investors must ask themselves whether rental rates are sustainable. It is apparent that the “chase” for the cool, hip, new Class A office is real, but the question is whether Class …
Strong gains in population and travel spending highlight Colorado as an increasingly popular place to work and visit, boosting demand for hotel rooms in the state. Leisure travel spending has climbed by 28.9 percent over the past five years, surpassing $22 billion in 2018. More than half of those funds were spent on commercial lodging. Business travel is also bolstered by companies either entering or expanding in the state. These demand factors translate to hotel occupancy and revenue metrics that have consistently exceeded the national average since 2014. Colorado’s November annual average occupancy rate rose 90 basis points year over year to 68.1 percent, compared with the national metric that held flat at about 66.2 percent. Colorado’s annual average RevPAR grew 3.8 percent over that same span, more than triple the U.S. pace, to $98.48. Robust gains in both occupancy and RevPAR demonstrate how demand for Colorado hotel rooms has outpaced numerous supply additions. The state’s inventory of hotel rooms has expanded by about 13 percent over the past five years, with 4,226 hotel rooms under construction. More than half of the keys underway will be delivered in Denver and Colorado Springs. Notable new projects in the Denver metro include …
Denver’s industrial real estate market continues to fire on all cylinders with 37 consecutive quarters of positive net absorption, record amounts of new supply and record-low cap rates for investment properties. The region’s industrial product has benefitted greatly from a strong and diversified economy, significant population growth both locally and regionally and the continued trend by companies to modify their supply chain to accommodate same-day deliveries. Demand has come from existing businesses that have grown organically and are now serving a larger market and carrying increased inventories. It has also come from new companies that hadn’t previously had distribution centers here but now need to serve the Colorado Front Range and the Rocky Mountain region. A new phenomenon that impacted the market recently is increased demand by tenants and users seeking build-to-suits rather than leasing or purchasing speculative buildings. One reason has been affordability, as some new developers and their capital partners have accepted significantly lower yields on cost in order to “build into” the market, compared to existing local developers that have historically commanded higher yields for speculative product. An example of this was a project built by Becknell/UBS that contained a 541,000-square-foot, cross-dock building. Haier (GE) Appliances pre-leased …
Denver was one of the top major metros targeted by commercial real estate investors in 2018. This year is proving to be no different as the third quarter closes out with a flood of office deals. Office investors are being forced to look for deals outside Denver’s urban core. Value-add acquisitions are mainly redevelopments driven by tenant demand for “cool” workspace and talent wars. There is no arguing Denver’s office market is maturing, but there appears to be no threats of an impending plateau or decline. The headlines this year have been dominated by large office lease transactions, including WeWork tying up 220,000 square feet at McGregor Square in LoDo. WeWork has taken a commanding stance with 2 million square feet in Denver and counting. Much of that space is dedicated to enterprise office space solutions and headquarters locations. This year has also marked the notable expansion of coworking outside of Denver’s urban core into Midtown, Cherry Creek and Southeast Denver. Occupancy levels within WeWork locations historically ebb and flow with direct vacancy rates per submarket performance. For example, WeWork at Civic Center Plaza in Upper Downtown Denver has been slow to fill with memberships and term. A WeWork desk …
Single-tenant, net leased (STNL) retail properties continue to be among the most highly sought-after real estate investments. This is particularly true in Colorado and California where supply and demand constraints have created sales with significant premiums. Investors are accustomed to paying low cap rates for single-tenant assets within California as these properties have historically traded for a significant premium in comparison to the rest of the nation. However, the premium associated with Colorado STNL retail properties is a fairly new phenomenon. This Colorado premium can be attributed to a considerable supply and demand imbalance. There are very few available STNL properties within Colorado, and substantial capital actively chases this product type. California-based 1031 exchange investors seeking higher yields and Colorado-based 1031 exchange investors selling multifamily properties at historic pricing (due to significant appreciation in rents and historically low cap rates) are spurring the increased demand. Colorado’s strong economy and recent population growth has also led to a lot of new development. This has impacted the quality of available properties, many of which are new construction with long-term leases. The median sold cap rate for a STNL retail property in Colorado was 6.02 percent in 2017. This represented a 38 basis …
Denver industrial assets are achieving record pricing as cap rates compress well below 5 percent for Class A product. As this is happening, developers are taking on hefty projects, signaling that Denver’s industrial real estate cycle is stretching its legs instead of winding down. Among the headlines: • Denver’s single largest investment transaction on record occurred in the first quarter of 2018. The Pauls Corporation sold 14 Class A, highly functional assets totaling 1.9 million square feet to Clarion Partners in the Airport submarket. • The largest speculative build of 701,900 square feet is underway by Majestic Realty. Prologis is building more than 500,000 square feet in the Central submarket, while Hyde Development kicked off the 1.8-million-square-foot 76 Commerce Center project in the “less than proven” I-76 Corridor. • Industrial land pricing has doubled in recent years to now double-digit pricing as triple-net asking lease rates approach $8 per square foot. Despite these impressive headlines, here are three reasons we expect further expansion in Denver’s industrial sector into 2019. Investor Preferences Align CBRE’s 2018 Americas Investor Intentions Survey revealed a dramatic increase in the popularity of industrial investments compared to years prior. Half of investors in the Americas are seeking …
An interesting metric was reached in the Denver multifamily market during the first quarter of 2018 — and that’s record absorption. The city already boasts accolades for quality of life, talks of strong in-migration and speculation of becoming the location for the second Amazon headquarters. After these, the most common topic of conversation for multifamily professionals is the unprecedented construction pipeline and just when will we hit an inflection point where the market won’t accept any more Class A, market-rate apartments. It seems we’re still not there. As of the first quarter of 2018, the trailing 12-month absorption was more than 10,000 units. That’s more units than what was completed in 2017 and the highest absorption on record. The result was metro-wide vacancy dipping year-over-year to 5.79 percent, limited concessions and metro-wide annual rent growth at 3.8 percent. Denver’s average rent now stands at $1,405 per unit and $1.62 per square foot. The Central Business District (CBD) experienced the most absorption this quarter, accounting for nearly 25 percent of total metro absorption. Annual rents also grew by 2.7 percent, leading the CBD to regain its title for most expensive rental submarket in Denver with rents per-unit averaging $1,835. But development …
Denver’s office market has been riding a wave of expansion, entering its ninth straight year of growth, with net absorption totaling 186,826 square feet in the first quarter of 2018. While vacancy ticked up — ending at 15.9 percent, up from 15.1 percent in the prior quarter and from 14.6 percent one year ago — it is expected to fall over the next several quarters as tenants continue to absorb space in both new and existing buildings. The Denver office market’s impressive expansion has lasted 33 consecutive quarters, resulting in a total of 9.7 million square feet of absorption, 7.4 million square feet of new deliveries and a 409-basis-point plunge in vacancy. The majority of the 9.7 million square feet absorbed between the first quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2018 occurred in three key submarkets. This included the Southeast Suburban (SES), Downtown and Northwest (NW) markets, which recorded 3.3 million, 2.9 million and 1.3 million square feet of absorption, respectively. The Downtown market ended the quarter with absorption of 214,317 square feet, and Class A median asking rates were up 39.5 percent from year-end 2009 to $39.76 per square foot. Asking rates in some of the newest …
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