By Taylor Williams “Numbers never lie; they simply tell different stories depending on the math of the tellers.” Mexican-American poet Luis Alberto Urrea may not have been talking about commercial real estate development and investment when he wrote that line, but the implications of that statement are undeniably applicable to those fields. The use of numerical projections in commercial development and investment is different from employing sabermetrics in sports or using predictive analytics to diagnose illnesses in medicine. Hard costs are what they are, and the formulas that developers and investors rely on to make critical decisions tend to be well-established in their rigidity, even if their inputs can and do change. Respecting the time-tested veracity of these formulas can make the difference between coasting through a down cycle or being crushed by it. Yet this is a world in which complex equations, algorithms and computations increasingly influence key business decisions. And so the ability to accurately forecast, control and manipulate numerical inputs is beyond valuable. Underwriting represents the piece of the real estate development or acquisition process in which these numerical details are shoved under the microscope and relentlessly finagled in hopes of keeping a development or deal alive. …
Industrial
By Taylor Williams The current industrial development landscape in Texas is a true testament to the awesome power of demand — and of interest rate hikes. From El Paso to Houston, industrial users of all sizes and across all industries continue to demand new or expanded spaces to accommodate their ever-growing warehousing, distribution and manufacturing needs. E-commerce, nearshoring, COVID-19 — name your impetus — they’ve all contributed to a feverish pace of industrial development and absorption in recent years. According to fourth-quarter 2022 data from CBRE, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) saw an annual supply gain of about 36.1 million square feet in 2022 while posting positive net absorption of 36.5 million square feet. Third-party logistics users drove much of the new leasing activity, which contributed to a 4.6 percent vacancy rate at the end of the year. The market has now posted consecutive years of sub-5-percent vacancy. Fittingly, there remains more than 75 million square feet of product under construction throughout the metroplex. In Houston, developers delivered approximately 18.8 million square feet of new industrial space in 2022, per CBRE. Yet the market posted more than 30 million square feet of positive absorption over the course of last year, and the …
By Tyler Ziebel, Colliers Following one of the most active and aggressive periods in Chicago’s industrial capital markets history, 2022 ended as a year most market participants would rather forget. As the buying community returned to their desks and fastened their seatbelts for another year of fun in 2023, industrial sales brokers across the country are starting the year posed with a question from investors that hasn’t been asked in some time: “What are we going to be able to buy this year?” It’s easy to assume that investors will remain content to sit out of the turbulent market, but the answer to where we are, and aren’t, seeing liquidity requires a nuanced answer. In order to do that, we must take a quick look at 2022 and what set this uncertain market in motion. After several record-setting years for industrial leasing and sales in 2020 and 2021, accelerated by the COVID pandemic and a historically low interest rate environment, 2022 opened with the same frenzied pace and enthusiasm of 2021. But as the Federal Reserve pivoted its focus from keeping the economy stable to taming the resulting inflation, rapidly rising interest rates grounded institutional industrial transactions and development deals …
By Ken Martin, JLL The Indianapolis industrial real estate market ended 2022 nearing a record high for a single year with more than 19.6 million square feet of absorption. Much of this was recorded in Hendricks, Johnson and Hancock counties with total year-end net absorption of 7.3, 6.4 and 3.2 million square feet, respectively. These submarkets continue to offer tenants excellent access to both interstate highways to transport goods across the country, as well as strong employment bases. Developers and tenants often cite employment bases as their No. 1 criteria in selecting an optimum site. With vacancy at an all-time low of sub 5 percent for the majority of 2022, developers and owners were able to push rents as demand outstripped supply. As recently as two to three years ago, rents were consistently in the high $3’s per square foot range and now we consistently see rents in the $5 per square foot range or higher. Year-end asking rents averaged $5.54 per square foot overall and $6.48 per square foot for mid-sized warehouse space. In some markets, however, rents for warehouse space were well above the average. In the central business district, for example, asking rates for warehouse …
By David Ebro, president of Levey Group Despite the nearly 6.4 million square feet of new project starts during the fourth quarter of 2022, which grew the volume of Houston’s industrial space currently under construction to 33.5 million square feet, the market posted a record 30.3 million square feet of net absorption for the year. This activity drove Houston’s vacancy rate down to 3.8 percent — a decline of 220 basis points from the end of 2021. The remarkable growth throughout the Houston MSA — the nation’s fourth-largest metropolitan area — has developers racing to find buildable sites both within and beyond the city limits. As a result, industrial development is bulging out of the city and into submarkets such as Baytown, Richmond and Brookshire as developers pursue more economically feasible land among these growing population centers. Beyond favorable land opportunities, Houston’s outlying submarkets offer the workforces that tenants require for their warehouse and distribution operations. These growing submarkets are also generating an increasing amount of demand from e-commerce users in the consumer goods sector. Record Growth East of Houston Much of the industrial growth can be found east of town, near and along the Houston Ship Channel. For the …
By John Hassler, Newmark Zimmer At the close of 2022, Kansas City’s industrial property market hit heights that would have been unimaginable only a decade prior. While Kansas City ranks as the 31st-largest MSA in the United States by population, it is the 16th-largest market nationally based on industrial square footage with nearly 315 million square feet of total inventory. Further, Kansas City ranks 10th nationally in the percentage of annual net absorption as compared with its market size and has added an impressive 62.5 million square feet of newly developed square footage over the last 10 years. Many factors have contributed to the market’s growth trajectory including the nation’s most geo-central location (a two-day truck drive to 85 percent of the continental U.S. population), the confluence of five Class-1 railroads (with four area intermodal centers), the intersection of four of the nation’s busiest interstates (including I-35 and I-70), an available and reasonably priced workforce, an abundance of industrial development sites in pro-development communities, and an experienced, well-capitalized concentration of developers headquartered in the area. Kansas City has leveraged those various logistical and strategic advantages at a perfect time to capitalize on an all-time high in industrial space demand with …
By Andrew Chused, founding partner, head of investments, Hilco Redevelopment Partners From the nation’s beginning to modern times, Philadelphia has been a bellwether city with a proud legacy of leading the nation to many of its firsts, including the country’s inaugural medical school, library, hospital, business school and stock exchange. In this city of firsts, Hilco Redevelopment Partners (HRP) is unlocking and reinventing a large portion of the city: the former 1,300-acre Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) site on the city’s southwest side. Not only is the redevelopment of this site transforming a relic of the city’s industrial age into a new, sustainable economy for the first time, but the project will also transform the way logistics and life sciences companies grow in southwest Philadelphia. An Economic Hub The site, aptly named The Bellwether District, represents a new ecosystem for a variety of tenants, including logistics, e-commerce and life sciences. Located in the shadows of University City and along the Schuylkill River, the project will create over 32,000 jobs and serve as an economic catalyst that drives growth to the city and region for generations to come. Upon its acquisition of the property in June of 2020, HRP quickly began the …
By David Hodge, NAI Greywolf The demand for commercial industrial real estate was exceedingly strong in the Milwaukee market leading up to the onset of COVID-19. The economy and labor markets were also strong and incentives for onshoring spurred on this growth. Post-pandemic commercial industrial product continues its upward trend. The catalyst for this, however, is international supply chain disruptions. The reaction to this unfortunate circumstance is the accumulation of higher inventories of raw material and finished goods. The resulting impact is high demand, especially for warehouses, in an extremely low vacancy rate environment. Demand beating inventory According to Catylist, in the second quarter of 2022, the Milwaukee market’s vacancy rates were 3.3 percent for all commercial industrial products. This is largely due to the continued lack of available inventory. High demand in part has spurred increases in rental rates to approximately $5.98 per square foot triple net. While this is good news for landlords who look to capitalize, it presents challenges for tenants who are expanding their operations. The other factor driving rental rates is the rapid increase in interest rates. The upcoming election may also affect the rates in the later part of the fourth quarter of …
By Denny Sciscoe, The Lund Co. The Omaha industrial market is experiencing increased leasing velocity, positive rent growth and record-breaking development. The market consists of 18 submarkets, totaling 103 million square feet of inventory. Omaha has traditionally been a risk-averse market with steady, slow-paced growth. Since 2016, Omaha has seen increased speculative development, which is absorbed as fast as it is built. In 2020, we began to see hyper-development, fueled by increased demand and developer confidence. The increased demand was a result of COVID-19, where we experienced five years of growth in a 12-month period as occupiers scrambled to find space for inventories and e-commerce, which was exasperated by the demand to store “just in case” inventories. The supply and demand dynamics of our market have been almost perfectly balanced. The average deliveries are around 1.3 million square feet annually, and our average absorption has been around 1.4 million square feet. Since the beginning of 2022, we are tracking about 5 million square feet of demand and another 2.2 million square feet of space that is currently in the construction pipeline. Overall vacancy currently sits at 2.6 percent, which is 100 basis points below our average of 3.6 percent. …
By Taylor Williams “Negative leverage.” At face value, the term has an undeniably ominous connotation. The first half is an umbrella word for all things adverse and pessimistic, while the second evokes a sense of financial helplessness and dependency, of being permanently hamstrung by creditors. Yet in the context of industrial investment in major markets throughout the Northeast, the term is more synonymous with flexibility and acceptance, as it represents a framework through which deals continue to get done despite the very dicey conditions of the U.S. capital markets. Since the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising the federal funds rates this spring to combat severe inflation, all commercial property types have been hit with softening buyer demand and, consequently, price declines. At the time of this writing, the nation’s central bank had a target range of 3 to 3.25 percent for short-term interest rates, nearly 300 basis points above its stated goal at the beginning of the year. Increases of that magnitude in the cost of debt adversely impact demand across all asset classes, as there are only so many buyers that can pay entirely in cash. Investors that can pay all cash expect — and usually receive — discounted …
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