Industrial activity in Louisville is growing at an exponential clip and doesn’t appear to be slowing anytime soon. As famously quoted in Field of Dreams, “If you build it, they will come.” And indeed they have. In Louisville and extending into southern Indiana, more than 3 million square feet of new construction has already been delivered this year. What’s more, the current pipeline of projects under construction — coupled with proposed construction — could deliver as much as 3 million square feet or more in the next nine to 12 months. The real estate landscape in Louisville is forever changed. Historically, institutional investors expressed interest in the region but were reluctant to take action. Now, with robust projects on the horizon, the pool of institutional owners making large-scale investments continues to grow. New players like The Opus Group, Dermody Properties Inc., Browning Investments LLC, Molto Properties LLC and VanTrust Real Estate LLC have all established projects in Louisville in the last two years. But why Louisville? Investors are setting sight on Kentucky for more than just new construction. Prime Locations Even during the economic downturn between 2008 and 2011, Louisville was never a victim of the extreme fallout experienced by …
Kentucky
The retail market for Louisville has continued to improve over the past year. New ground-up developments, which have been virtually nonexistent the past five years, are now open for business. Vacancy rates are falling, new tenants are entering the market, and retail investment sales continue to be in high demand. The $2.5 billion Louisville- Southern Indiana Ohio River bridges project is on track for a 2016 opening. New developments in downtown and northeast Louisville, as well as Southern Indiana, are looking to capitalize on the new infrastructure. GBT Realty is looking to expand its presence in the market with a proposed 220,000-square-foot joint venture project across the river in Jeffersonville, Ind. The site is located within in the 170-acre master-planned Jefferson Town Center on Veterans Parkway. Menards is opening a new 200,000-square-foot property this fall across the street from GBT’s proposed development. In addition to GBT Realty’s newly opened Middletown Commons and Jefferson Commons in Louisville, the three projects are from developments that were planned before the Great Recession and now have new life. The Outlet Shoppes of the Bluegrass, located in Simpsonville, Ky., has been a major success since opening in late 2014. After just six months, an expansion …
Louisville’s retail market continues to experience a shortage of space in high-demand markets in spite of several new developments opening over the past year. During this period, two major retail developments have been completed with several smaller projects under construction or in the planning stages. Second-generation big box vacancy is virtually non-existent and finding quality shop space is becoming equally challenging. As a result, rents have escalated to historic highs. The most notable additions to the Louisville market are two neighborhood centers developed by Brentwood, Tenn.-based GBT Realty Corp. Nestled amongst a rapidly expanding residential community and PGA’s notable Valhalla Golf Club in eastern Louisville, the 240,000-square-foot Middletown Commons is anchored by Hobby Lobby, Academy Sports + Outdoor, Ross Dress for Less and Liquor Barn. Jefferson Commons, located in south Louisville, is anchored by Academy Sports + Outdoor, Hancock Fabrics, HH Gregg, Michael’s, Liquor Barn and several fast-casual restaurant concepts. In western Louisville, BC Wood Properties added Hobby Lobby and Goody’s stores at the 350,000-square foot Dixie Manor Shopping Center. Southwest of the city’s central business district, the redevelopment of Dixie Valley Shopping Center expanded its footprint to include additional soft goods retailers such as Marshalls, Ross Dress for Less, …
The Louisville multifamily market has consistently demonstrated strong, favorable market fundamentals, which has drawn significant interest in this growing riverfront city. Since 2010, the market has seen 19.8 percent rent growth and continually posted occupancy gains. This momentum resulted in a record amount of multifamily transactions in 2014 and continues to fuel investor demand today. This momentum in the multifamily sector is happening not only in Louisville, but across the U.S., according to CBRE Research. Overall demand for rental housing continues to be driven by demographic-led household formation and a deepening preference for rental vs. owner tenure. Supply continues to grow briskly and rent and revenue growth are accelerating. Additionally, a recent CBRE multifamily study found that the national homeownership rate is 63.4 percent — its lowest level since 1967. The report also discovered that the national rent growth has reached its strongest year-over-year gain in nine years. And we don’t expect this trend to level off anytime soon. During the first half of 2015, the Louisville market demonstrated strong fundamentals with increasing rents and occupancy. Between 2014 and 2015, the annual market-wide rent growth was 3.4 percent, bringing the average rent to $786, or $0.86 per square foot. The …
Louisville’s industrial market continues to impress as it has successfully navigated recessionary times to the now current brisk market with solid activity. Even within those leaner times of 2009 and 2010, Louisville grew its occupied footprint by approximately 1.6 million square feet with perhaps a recipe that includes its beneficial geographic location and infrastructure, diverse manufacturing and logistics economy buffeted by UPS Worldport and Supply Chain Logistics, and aggressive state incentives provided by Kentucky and adjacent neighbor Indiana. The I-65 corridor is currently, and has been, white hot over the last 15 years. Louisville, like many similarly sized cities with populations over 1 million, has developed to its outer edges and industrial development is now spilling into smaller adjacent communities such as Shepherdsvillle, Ky., and Jeffersonville, Ind., both of which no longer resemble their former industrial selves. National and international developers like Prologis, USAA, Dermody, Exeter, DCT, Pinchal and Welsh, along with local developers such as Main Street Realty, Capstone, America Place and Crossdock, have found these communities and the I-65 corridor not only ripe with opportunity, but flush with tenants. On the Louisville side of the Ohio River, current speculative construction along the corridor includes more than 1.4 million …
The trends in Louisville are typical of a market rebounding. According to CBRE Research, the Louisville market is experiencing rent growth, vacancy declines, construction increases and more speculative product hitting the city. Leasing volume is increasing steadily, and investment sales are peaking as well. The Louisville industrial market remains tight even with several recent construction completions. With more than 100 million square feet of industrial space in the area, Louisville is a major player in the Eastern United States distribution market. Despite several lease and sale transactions consummating in the second quarter of 2014, market vacancy increased slightly to 4 percent, which reflects the fact that several large speculative buildings came on line during the period offsetting otherwise net positive absorption. As expected, with existing industrial inventory levels at an all-time low and new building deliveries coming on line and more on the horizon, market vacancies rose to 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014, ending a streak of 13 consecutive quarters of declining vacancy. Louisville remains an extremely tight market, even considering the increase in the vacancy rate. In addition, compared to the percentage of total market size in neighboring cities like Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Nashville and Memphis, …
The economic recovery has flipped Louisville’s office market. Historically, the central business district (CBD) has lower vacancy and higher leasing rates than the suburban office market, while new development and low barriers to entry generally kept vacancy higher in the suburbs. Now, suburban vacancy rates rest below the CBD’s, especially for Class A product. Even as speculative development returns to the suburbs, the submarket’s hot streak shows no signs of abating, and the downtown submarket has plenty of positive momentum as well. Suburban Class A vacancy was 8.4 percent at mid-year, with average asking rates in the $20 to $22 per square foot range, or higher in top-tier new office developments. The suburban office market has been quite active, but Class A and B vacancies haven’t materially changed this year due to a spate of renewals and net moves from one building to another. Still, we expect a noteworthy fourth quarter as demand is perhaps as strong as it’s ever been, and owners remain aggressive, in many cases offering three months free rent and turnkey tenant improvements with long-term deals. Lack of available large blocks of space could lead to build-to-suit activity, too. There are virtually no available blocks of …
Louisville is riding a wave of momentum after hosting its third PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in August. In addition, the $2.5 billion Louisville-Southern Indiana Ohio River bridge projects are under construction and scheduled to open in 2016. This project adds two new bridges, an east end bridge connecting I-265 in Kentucky with I-265 in Indiana, and a second bridge located downtown as part of improvements to I-65. These significant infrastructure improvements are a game changer in the fact that they will improve accessibility to new retail trade areas such as southern Indiana and northeast Louisville. In anticipation of the Kentucky International Convention Center being dramatically expanded and remodeled, Louisville has five hotels under construction or planned for downtown. Omni Hotels & Resorts will build its first property in Kentucky in Louisville, a 600-room convention hotel at Third and Liberty streets. Estimated to open no later than 2017, the Omni will be adjacent to 200 apartments, a grocery store and retail shops. The project is a public-private partnership between Omni, Cordish Cos., metro government and the state of Kentucky. REI Real Estate Services and Poe Cos. are developing a 172-room Aloft Hotel located in the central business district at …
Limited multifamily rental development and additional hiring by local employers will sustain another strong year for the Louisville apartment sector during 2012. Despite a slight increase in vacancy during the first three months of the year, tight conditions prevail as many residents moved into apartments during the past two years. Local employers expanded payrolls during the past two years and more than half of the jobs lost in the metro during the recession have been recovered. The market continues to benefit from the revival of Ford, while the area’s logistics and transportation employers have added workers as more packages and freight move through Louisville en route to other markets. The reinvigorated drivers of apartment demand continue to benefit most locations around the metro, but none more than the submarkets encompassing suburban communities located beyond the inner beltway. Overall vacancy in this area, which contains about three-fourths of the market’s apartments, sits at less than 4 percent, with the Class A rate closer to 3 percent. A lack of new construction will keep rents and vacancies healthy in the Louisville metro area. The 35-unit Whiskey Row Lofts in the West Central submarket delivered in the first quarter, becoming the only market-rate …
As 2012 begins the Louisville retail market continues to positively move forward. The energy and optimism in the national markets is well reflected in the city with new tenants entering the area for the first time and a variety of locals, regional and national players looking to expand. The greatest challenge currently in the market is the scarce availability of quality space which is hindering some retailers’ entry into the market today and could seriously affect future growth. Fall 2011 saw Guitar Center, Nike Factory Store and Trader Joe’s all opened in Shelbyville Road Plaza in the city’s main retail core, St. Matthews. While the influx of new tenants is positive, the ownership still must re-tenant vacant boxes left by Circuit City, Wild Oats and Border’s Books. Most recently, Anthropologie announced that it would join Macy’s, Sear’s and Von Maur at Oxmoor Mall further solidifying Oxmoor as the city’s premier upscale shopping destination. Mall St. Matthews continues to be well occupied while appealing to a slightly younger clientele. Other new additions to St. Matthews trade area include Mellow Mushroom Pizza, Tin Roof and Bruegger’s Bagels. The biggest news in the northeast segment of the trade area was the $78 million …