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Expanding Providers Boost Minneapolis Medical Office Market

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 29 Sep 2022 11:45:24 +0000

By Jill Rasmussen, Davis The Minneapolis – St. Paul medical office building (MOB) market remains strong with calculated strategic growth from both hospital systems and independent clinics. The MOB sector has been resilient during the pandemic, economic challenges and local civil unrest. Providers have been focused on expanding into new market areas to locate close to their patient base, providing full-service medical hubs offering outpatient surgery and specialty services to communities while offering lower-cost care away from a hospital campus. The overall market remains very stable with a current vacancy rate of 8.6 percent on-campus and 10.6 percent off-campus. There remains high interest in off-campus locations for most non-acute care for location access and cost savings. Base rents continue to increase both on- and off-campus due to demand and higher new construction pricing. Base rates have reached nearly $22 per rentable square foot (rsf) on average on-campus and $21/rsf for off-campus existing product. New MOB construction rates have increased from $24.50/rsf to $28+/rsf due to interest rate hikes and supply chain/labor issues, but new construction projects continue to move ahead based on provider’s strategic initiatives. Annual base rent increases are trending up due to current inflation levels from a historical…

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Minneapolis Suburbs Continue to Shine for Retail Real Estate

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 22 Sep 2022 11:45:27 +0000

By Jesseka Doherty and Johnny Reimann, Mid-America Real Estate The fundamental strength of the metro Minneapolis economy is on full display in the suburban retail real estate market this summer, where space is tight, new supply is limited, rents are on the rise and construction costs continue to challenge tenants and landlords alike. The macroeconomic picture in the first half of the year was stunning, actually. For the second quarter that ended June 30, the unemployment rate was a remarkable sub-2 percent, which was even lower than the national level of about 4 percent, and consumer spending was robust. Urban submarkets have been more challenged, but even in the Minneapolis central business district, retail rents are holding up as the office market shows stability. Driving demand With work-from-home still a factor, remote employees who live in the suburbs often are more inclined to shop, dine and play close to home, which bodes well for retail in proximity. Across key trade areas, retailers and other tenants in regional and community centers are more in demand than ever. Submarkets faring well include Apple Valley, Burnsville, Coon Rapids, Eagan, Maple Grove, Roseville and Woodbury. The densification of the suburbs also is driving demand…

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Twin Cities Industrial Sector Marked by High Demand, Exploding Liquidity

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 10 Mar 2022 12:45:52 +0000

2021 has been an absolute whirlwind for the Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) industrial market. Plunging cap rates, liquidity growing faster than ever and a sharply felt shortage of new supply have defined the last year and will continue to define 2022. New faces on the development side are entering the market right and left to capture the huge profits to be had from the supply/demand imbalance. New construction has been stabilizing in six to eight months and institutions have ear-marked MSP as a forward-sale market. The following are a few of the salient trends that should be considered when contemplating the MSP industrial market. Liquidity growth Since the last trough in 2016, the MSP industrial market has experienced an average 30 percent year-over-year growth in sales volume. 2021 experienced nearly half a billion dollars more in industrial investment sales than 2020, according to Real Capital Analytics. Cap rate compression Over the last year, the MSP industrial market has experienced change unlike in any other year. Entering 2021, the low-water stabilized cap rate was 5.15 percent, but by year-end, that had sunk 82 basis points to 4.33 percent. Warehouse rates in the $8 to $9 NNN range, once rare, are now commonplace;…

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Work-from-Home Boosts Suburban Minneapolis Retail Market

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 03 Mar 2022 12:45:26 +0000

The metro Minneapolis retail real estate market is healthy overall coming out of 2021, with suburban submarkets on fire in many cases and urban submarkets generally subdued. A major overhang of supply was absorbed across the region last year as construction slowed dramatically, pushing retail vacancies down, rents up and sales prices of single and multi-tenant assets higher overall. It’s a testament to the market’s overall stability and resilience given the multiple waves of COVID, and events surrounding the George Floyd case that was prosecuted last year in the city. Work-from-home effect With many white-collar professionals still working from home and the center-cities tougher on mask mandates and vaccine requirements, the suburbs have shone the brightest. Vacancies were as low as 6 percent in some areas, with the overall market at 8.2 percent at year-end, according to the Minnesota Commercial Association of Real Estate/Realtors (MNCAR). Among the strongest performing submarkets have been Apple Valley, Maple Grove, Coon Rapids and Woodbury. The metro’s eight regional malls are generally faring well, unlike in some other markets across the U.S. that are more over-supplied. That said, there’s some adaptive reuse going on, including in the northwest suburb of Maple Grove where a freestanding…

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Institutional Capital Targets Minneapolis Industrial Market

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 14 Oct 2021 11:45:44 +0000

By Peter Loehrer, Colliers MSP Minneapolis has secured its position as the darling market of the Midwest industrial investment community. Minneapolis was the quintessential Midwest city: cautious real estate development, durable rents with stately growth and moderate but unwavering absorption growth year to year. This, however, is no longer the case. A combination of repeated institutional capital injections, a highly constrained land market and exponential growth in tenants looking for new space has transformed Minneapolis into an institutional and foreign capital target market. Institutional capital By far the most transformational event in recent history for the Minneapolis industrial market was Link Industrial’s entrance into the market. Beginning in 2018 with the Gramercy acquisition, and continuing in 2019 with the Space Center acquisition — both of which have bits and pieces of the national portfolio located throughout Minneapolis — Link made its first real foray into Minneapolis in May of 2019 with the acquisition of the 2.2 million-square-foot Industrial Equities portfolio. Link quickly followed this up with pieces of the GLP and Colony Capital acquisitions, as well as the largest real estate purchase in Minneapolis history, the 7.2 million-square-foot CSM Corp. industrial portfolio, and most recently the 2.5 million-square-foot Prologis portfolio. …

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Twin Cities Multifamily: A Look Back, What’s Next for the Resilient Market

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 22 Apr 2021 11:45:51 +0000

By Ted Bickel and Jeff Budish, Colliers MSP At the start of the pandemic last spring, conversations with developers, investors and operators varied from discouraging to catastrophic. Everyone expected the worst. Luckily for the industry, that is not what happened. Amid a year of great uncertainty across the economic spectrum, the Twin Cities multifamily market showed a great deal of resilience, overcoming many challenges in 2020. 2020 recap Considering that the marketplace was nearly frozen for the second quarter of 2020, overall transaction volume for 2020 was surprisingly strong. Minnesota saw a considerable uptick in activity toward the end of the year, driving annual totals up to just short of $1.3 billion. A strong bounce-back in the second half of the year speaks to strong demand drivers and generally solid operating performance — even during the economic shutdown. However, while vacancies did not run up, as many had feared, collections and bad debt suffered. Understandably, many tenants struggled to pay rent as stimulus waned later in the year. This had a notable effect on net operating income. Overall, pricing did not change, while cap rates lowered to some extent. Inexpensive debt, particularly from the agencies, was a large factor in…

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Twin Cities Industrial Market Poised for Additional Growth

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 15 Apr 2021 11:45:29 +0000

By Joe Mahoney, Opus Development Co. Despite a confluence of major events in 2020 that shook our world — the pandemic, social unrest, historically high rates of unemployment — the industrial real estate market in the Twin Cities fared very well. While positive net absorption was limited in the second quarter of 2020, the rate accelerated to 1.1 million square feet during the fourth quarter and ended the year at 3.2 million square feet, according to CBRE Minneapolis-St. Paul. Active users also increased. In the beginning of 2020, there were 6.4 million square feet of users. At the end of the third quarter, that number had increased to 10 million, and by the end of the year, there were close to 12 million square feet of users, almost doubling over the course of the year. We see user demand continuing to trend up and accelerate this year. To support growth plans, users are looking for highly functional manufacturing, warehousing and distribution facilities. Many businesses are increasing efficiency and productivity by consolidating several obsolete buildings into one new highly functional, build-to-suit space. COVID-19 supply chain disruption has prompted some businesses to increase their footprint for storing more inventory and reducing reliance…

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How Can Minnesota Apartment Developers Access Capital While Minimizing Risk? Structured Finance

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:45:25 +0000

The Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul continue to be a very attractive marketplace for multifamily investing due to an average vacancy across the metro of 3.1 percent, as well as average 2019 rent growth of 5.8 percent, according to a recent report issued by Marquette Advisors. The Twin Cities currently has nearly 30,000 multifamily units in the development pipeline that are expected to be delivered between 2020 and 2022. With all of this development activity and an abundance of local and regional banks in the area, the Twin Cities continues to be a very well-banked market, particularly with regard to apartment construction. Local and regional banks are all very active. In addition, national banks are eager to invest in the healthy, consistent Twin Cities multifamily market. But despite capital being relatively plentiful and accessible, local, regional and national developers are exploring more efficient ways to capitalize on the abundance of development activity. They also pursue ways to stretch their own equity through a variety of financing alternatives. Developers may be tapped out with their current banking relationships, or as projects get larger and more expensive, desired loan sizes may drift higher than their banks’ lending limits. Lenders and…

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Influx of Out-of-State Capital Creates Cap Rate Compression in Twin Cities Market

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 19 Mar 2020 11:45:46 +0000

In 2019, the Twin Cities net lease retail market experienced a historic year, benefitting significantly from aggressive western U.S. capital. The Twin Cities saw an unprecedented number of buyers from the western United States who were willing to pay a premium above local buyers for quality net leased real estate. There were 95 net lease transactions in the Twin Cities in 2019 that sold below a 7.5 percent cap rate, according to CoStar Group. Of those transactions, 33 percent were sold to buyers based in the West Coast. What’s more, of the net lease properties that sold below a 6.25 percent cap rate, nearly 50 percent were sold to buyers based in the western U.S. In comparison, in 2018, only 25 percent of the net leased properties below a 6.25 percent cap rate in the Twin Cities sold to buyers based in the western U.S. This trend helped average cap rates compress for both net lease multi-tenant pad/strip centers as well as single-tenant cap rates between 2018 and 2019. The average multi-tenant net lease cap rate in 2018 was 7.25 percent versus 7.1 percent in 2019. The average single-tenant cap rate in 2018 was 6.7 percent versus 6.6 percent in…

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Strong Mix of Fortune 500 Companies Helps Fuel Growth of Twin Cities

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 21 Nov 2019 12:45:40 +0000

Even in the context of a sustained stretch of national economic growth and a Midwest region where there are plenty of high-performing markets, Minneapolis-St. Paul stands out. The commercial real estate market in and around the Twin Cities is thriving, in large part due to some impressive structural fundamentals. Metrics and measurables The state of Minnesota — especially the Minneapolis-St. Paul metro area — has a very diverse base of employment, with a long list of significant Fortune 500 companies, including familiar and even iconic names like Target, Best Buy, 3M, U.S. Bancorp, General Mills, Medtronic, C.H. Robinson and United Health Care. United Health Care alone generated $226 billion in revenue in 2018. The economic and market diversity of the Twin Cities stands in contrast to some other Midwest markets, even some that are experiencing significant growth. The market has also experienced an exciting and ongoing uptick in workforce numbers and population growth, elevating Minneapolis-St. Paul far ahead of U.S. averages for both numbers — surpassing cities like Seattle, Atlanta and Washington, D.C. Forbes lists the state of Minnesota as among the nation’s top 10 “Best States for Business.” With 65 percent of the state’s population living in the Minneapolis-St.…

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Strong Economy, Low Unemployment Drive Twin Cities Office Market Success

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 19 Sep 2019 11:45:33 +0000

Our Twin Cities office market remains strong as the population of millennials and empty nesters continues to migrate to first- and second-ring areas, bringing revitalization and new investment into the city’s commerce and infrastructure. With vacancies remaining exceptionally low and fewer developments on the horizon, rents have shown consistent growth. We are seeing fewer new buildings under construction for single-tenant users. Most are geared toward multi-tenant, mixed-use concepts. Newly renovated buildings with many amenities are performing well in attracting and keeping tenants. With the metro’s unemployment right around 3 percent and employers with jobs to fill, tenants have the leverage. Offering modern and high-tech communal spaces with multiple amenities is key. Tenants and buyers are leveraging this trend, therefore spaces with the allure of contemporary and updated finishes are highly desired. It is imperative that landlords and owners renovate and update their buildings in order to stay relevant in today’s market. Many tenants are simply moving from one space to another nearby because it has been updated and improved upon. That is one of the bigger challenges — improvements that keep the space relevant. Space configurations Employers often offset higher rent costs by embracing space efficiency and flexible workspace strategies…

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Mixed-Use and Apartments: Is There Still Room for Growth in the Twin Cities?

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 05 Sep 2019 11:45:01 +0000

As a team, we work heavily in mixed-use leasing and development sourcing. Our team handles the commercial leasing on many mixed-use projects within the Twin Cities market, where we also source and find locations for mixed-use apartment developers. This article will give a current snapshot of the mixed-use retail and apartment market within the Twin Cities. What types of projects? There are many three- to six-story, podium-style apartment buildings popping up all over the urban areas of Minneapolis-St. Paul. This product type can also be found in the suburbs. The first floor, or the podium, is constructed out of concrete and allows for up to five additional floors. This is very prevalent in our market and we don’t see this changing soon. However, advanced timber construction is just starting to show itself in the Twin Cities. The mid-rise and high-rise multifamily buildings are mostly contained to the urban core areas. These projects are all concrete construction. It took up until the last five years or so to see major grocers occupy the first floor. We have observed many examples of this and have worked with some of the large nationals as well as larger, local grocers. Mixed-use does not appear…

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Twin Cities’ Apartment Market Poised for a Strong 2019

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 28 Mar 2019 11:45:02 +0000

The Twin Cities apartment market is historically characterized by high occupancy and minimal volatility, with consistent and solid year-over-year rent increases, minimal concessions and a sustained vacancy rate well below 5 percent. As a result, there is abundant interest from investors and lenders alike to place capital in the Twin Cities. The lending environment for Twin Cities’ apartment owners appears poised for another great run in 2019, with all lender types having a large appetite to place capital in the market. Agency lenders Agency lenders (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and HUD) have been extremely active, and that will not change. Their allocations remain high, and all agencies are expected to compete aggressively for business. Additionally, there is an increased focus on products catering to affordable and workforce housing, not only for existing properties, but in providing loan commitments and locked interest rates for takeout financing for affordable or workforce housing projects. The agency reach extends geographically to secondary and tertiary out-of-state markets as well, with minimal impact on underwriting standards. Agency lenders are able to provide relatively high leverage, longer-term, nonrecourse financing for all classes of apartments. Their ability to offer partial or full-term interest-only payments is a significant…

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To Attract and Retain Tenants, Office Landlords Get Creative in Minneapolis

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 21 Mar 2019 11:45:10 +0000

Stakes are rising in the war for talent, and employers are using amenity-rich real estate to win the hearts and minds of the brightest young recruits. Determined to outflank the competition, companies are increasingly focused on occupying buildings with the best available on-site features, proximity to nearby amenities, and the elusive “cool” factor. Competition escalates To heed the call for better offerings, landlords in Minneapolis have begun to offer unconventional amenities including golf simulators and nap pods. As owners of traditional Class B and C buildings undertake renovations and amenity package upgrades to compete with Class A properties, lines between building classes are starting to blur. Tenants will likely start taking a more cautious approach to real estate, reflecting an increase in business uncertainty and projections for slower growth. This mindset will decrease appetites for relocations, prompting more renewals in 2019. Despite this trend, there will be a healthy number of relocations for those tenants that have not yet right-sized by employing modern furniture systems, single-sized offices, more natural light and more collaborative space. Within tenants’ spaces, private offices will grow increasingly scarce, and those that remain will move to the interior to provide more light, greater flexibility and better…

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Industrial Owners Find Success in Reinventing Flex and Showroom Spaces

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 27 Sep 2018 11:45:48 +0000

The most active commercial real estate category in the Twin Cities metro area over the last several years, in terms of leasing activity and new construction sales, has been industrial product. New construction has been trending toward office warehouse and bulk buildings with higher clear heights, as tenants are implementing new racking systems and growing upward to optimize their space. On the surface, this trend may sound like it will leave behind the lower-clear height flex and office showroom buildings. However, owners of flex and office showroom buildings in Minneapolis-St. Paul are finding new interest by providing creative amenities and repositioning assets that are attracting entirely new tenant prospect types and reinventing what an office showroom building can become. The ability to target a wider potential prospect pool including office users, retailers and non-traditional industrial users is reliant on proper vacancy preparation to be able to show the space as a true blank slate. Through white-boxing the space, owners show that the space has high ceilings with an industrial feel, an aesthetic that many office users are interested in, but at a significantly lower price point versus many office buildings. Another benefit of the office showroom product is that there…

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Influx of Supply Begins to Impact Minneapolis Multifamily Market

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 20 Sep 2018 11:45:11 +0000

Like several other markets across the country, the Twin Cities is experiencing the peak of the post-recession construction cycle. However, the traditionally tight multifamily market is in one of the best positions to absorb new units. In fact, Minneapolis-St. Paul has consistently reported one of the lowest vacancy rates in the nation due to a strong economic base and pent up demand for new units. Metro Minneapolis is the second-largest economic center in the Midwest and the local economy has grown at an average of 3 percent over the past five years, a healthy rate in the Midwest. The 18 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in the area are a significant driver of job growth and rental demand, along with the hundreds of support firms. As a result, the unemployment rate is below 3 percent and among the lowest in the nation. Despite a lack of available talent, employers managed to create 30,600 jobs in the year-long period ending in the second quarter. Overall, payrolls expanded by 1.5 percent during that time. Employment growth is encouraging development across several sectors in the market. In South Minneapolis, construction along the Blue Line is taking shape as $300 million in projects are coming…

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Future Is Bright for Senior Living Development in the Twin Cities

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 29 Mar 2018 11:45:36 +0000

Exciting times are in store for the senior living industry. A massive generation of baby boomers is entering the golden years of retirement and beyond, driving a wave of demand for seniors housing. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates 78 million baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. The youngest boomers are 54 this year and the oldest are 72, so we are just eclipsing the front end of the wave. In 2029, just 11 years from now, all baby boomers will be at least 65 years old, with the vast majority beyond age 65. This group will represent 20 percent of the U.S. population, and that is when the wave may start to resemble a tsunami. Strength in numbers Demographers agree that circumstances are favorable for growth in the seniors housing market, and the real estate industry is responding. In the Twin Cities, market conditions are balanced with an adequate supply of seniors housing to handle the first groups of seniors moving in. At this time, we observe that the greatest demand is for independent living versus assisted living, memory care or skilled nursing. Overbuilding has not been an issue in the Twin Cities and most of the Midwest…

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From Pop-Up Shops to Escape Rooms, Minneapolis Embraces Experiential Retail

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 22 Mar 2018 11:45:26 +0000

The retail sector in metro Minneapolis continues to adapt to changing consumer preferences, fast-moving economic opportunities and new state laws. Over the course of 2017, the retail real estate market showed positive growth in every category. Absorption of 1.4 million square feet surpassed the 1.3 million square feet of deliveries, according to CoStar Group. The rising cost of construction, low vacancy rate (3.1 percent) and increasing rental rates are creating new barriers to entry for retail businesses. The aforementioned factors, along with a newfound confidence in the rising economy, are causing landlords of all magnitude to become more selective with the quality of tenants they accept. Landlords will continue to become more reserved with regard to the tenant allowances they provide for new tenants. We have seen retail giants such as Walmart and Target add new services that emphasize both value and convenience and bring shoppers back for quick fill-in trips. Minneapolis-based Target Corp. announced the public rollout of its Target Restock program, a next-day delivery service for household essentials that is designed to compete with Amazon’s Prime Pantry. After being beta-tested by its employees, the program is currently only available in about nine markets, but plans are to slowly…

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Minneapolis Market Ready to Embrace Shifting Retail Trends

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 12 Oct 2017 11:45:37 +0000

The Minneapolis retail market ended the second quarter with a vacancy rate of 3.1 percent. The freestanding retail segment (buildings not contained within a shopping center) posted a vacancy rate of 1.8 percent. Over the past year, there has been a pattern of positive absorption in the market. The average quoted asking retail rental rate at the end of the second quarter was $13.94 per square foot. Comparably, a year ago this rate was $13.29 per square foot. Meanwhile, construction of retail properties has been on an upward climb. Within the past four quarters, 1.2 million square feet of retail space has been built, and there is an additional 892,910 square feet in progress, according to CoStar Group. Net absorption continues Retail net absorption was moderate in Minneapolis in the second quarter of 2017, totaling 484,120 square feet. That’s up from 135,536 square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter and 366,652 square feet in the fourth quarter of 2016. However, these figures are all down from the third quarter of 2016, when 638,183 square feet were positively absorbed in the market. Several tenants have moved out of large blocks of space in 2017. For example, Sears vacated 125,209…

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Stars Are Aligned for Twin Cities’ Apartment Market to Remain Strong

Kristin Harlow — Thu, 23 Mar 2017 11:45:09 +0000

Following the recession, demand for multifamily development took off in many areas of the country. We predicted it as significant economic and demographic changes were happening, spurring a shift from homeownership to renting. As a result, the multifamily sector experienced a resurgence that hadn’t been seen in decades. In some cities where an abundance of multifamily projects have been delivered, there is discussion of potential saturation. That’s not the case in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, where demand for multifamily developments remains strong and the vacancy rate is an extremely low 2.6 percent. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, at the end of 2016 the vacancy rate in the Twin Cities compared quite favorably with other metropolitan areas such as San Antonio, Texas (13.6 percent); Tampa, Fla., (11.6 percent); and Tulsa, Okla. (10.2 percent). Keep in mind that a 5 percent vacancy rate is considered to be a stabilized market. Healthy job growth Several economic factors continue to drive apartment demand in the Twin Cities, including job growth, low unemployment and a strong base for business expansion. Minnesota ranks third in the nation for number of Fortune 500 companies per capita. Prominent corporations with headquarters…

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