Minnesota

Our Twin Cities office market remains strong as the population of millennials and empty nesters continues to migrate to first- and second-ring areas, bringing revitalization and new investment into the city’s commerce and infrastructure. With vacancies remaining exceptionally low and fewer developments on the horizon, rents have shown consistent growth. We are seeing fewer new buildings under construction for single-tenant users. Most are geared toward multi-tenant, mixed-use concepts. Newly renovated buildings with many amenities are performing well in attracting and keeping tenants. With the metro’s unemployment right around 3 percent and employers with jobs to fill, tenants have the leverage. Offering modern and high-tech communal spaces with multiple amenities is key. Tenants and buyers are leveraging this trend, therefore spaces with the allure of contemporary and updated finishes are highly desired. It is imperative that landlords and owners renovate and update their buildings in order to stay relevant in today’s market. Many tenants are simply moving from one space to another nearby because it has been updated and improved upon. That is one of the bigger challenges — improvements that keep the space relevant. Space configurations Employers often offset higher rent costs by embracing space efficiency and flexible workspace strategies …

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As a team, we work heavily in mixed-use leasing and development sourcing. Our team handles the commercial leasing on many mixed-use projects within the Twin Cities market, where we also source and find locations for mixed-use apartment developers. This article will give a current snapshot of the mixed-use retail and apartment market within the Twin Cities. What types of projects? There are many three- to six-story, podium-style apartment buildings popping up all over the urban areas of Minneapolis-St. Paul. This product type can also be found in the suburbs. The first floor, or the podium, is constructed out of concrete and allows for up to five additional floors. This is very prevalent in our market and we don’t see this changing soon. However, advanced timber construction is just starting to show itself in the Twin Cities. The mid-rise and high-rise multifamily buildings are mostly contained to the urban core areas. These projects are all concrete construction. It took up until the last five years or so to see major grocers occupy the first floor. We have observed many examples of this and have worked with some of the large nationals as well as larger, local grocers.  Mixed-use does not appear …

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The Twin Cities apartment market is historically characterized by high occupancy and minimal volatility, with consistent and solid year-over-year rent increases, minimal concessions and a sustained vacancy rate well below 5 percent. As a result, there is abundant interest from investors and lenders alike to place capital in the Twin Cities.  The lending environment for Twin Cities’ apartment owners appears poised for another great run in 2019, with all lender types having a large appetite to place capital in the market. Agency lenders Agency lenders (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and HUD) have been extremely active, and that will not change. Their allocations remain high, and all agencies are expected to compete aggressively for business. Additionally, there is an increased focus on products catering to affordable and workforce housing, not only for existing properties, but in providing loan commitments and locked interest rates for takeout financing for affordable or workforce housing projects.    The agency reach extends geographically to secondary and tertiary out-of-state markets as well, with minimal impact on underwriting standards. Agency lenders are able to provide relatively high leverage, longer-term, nonrecourse financing for all classes of apartments. Their ability to offer partial or full-term interest-only payments is a significant …

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Stakes are rising in the war for talent, and employers are using amenity-rich real estate to win the hearts and minds of the brightest young recruits. Determined to outflank the competition, companies are increasingly focused on occupying buildings with the best available on-site features, proximity to nearby amenities, and the elusive “cool” factor.  Competition escalates To heed the call for better offerings, landlords in Minneapolis have begun to offer unconventional amenities including golf simulators and nap pods. As owners of traditional Class B and C buildings undertake renovations and amenity package upgrades to compete with Class A properties, lines between building classes are starting to blur. Tenants will likely start taking a more cautious approach to real estate, reflecting an increase in business uncertainty and projections for slower growth. This mindset will decrease appetites for relocations, prompting more renewals in 2019.  Despite this trend, there will be a healthy number of relocations for those tenants that have not yet right-sized by employing modern furniture systems, single-sized offices, more natural light and more collaborative space. Within tenants’ spaces, private offices will grow increasingly scarce, and those that remain will move to the interior to provide more light, greater flexibility and better …

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The most active commercial real estate category in the Twin Cities metro area over the last several years, in terms of leasing activity and new construction sales, has been industrial product. New construction has been trending toward office warehouse and bulk buildings with higher clear heights, as tenants are implementing new racking systems and growing upward to optimize their space. On the surface, this trend may sound like it will leave behind the lower-clear height flex and office showroom buildings. However, owners of flex and office showroom buildings in Minneapolis-St. Paul are finding new interest by providing creative amenities and repositioning assets that are attracting entirely new tenant prospect types and reinventing what an office showroom building can become. The ability to target a wider potential prospect pool including office users, retailers and non-traditional industrial users is reliant on proper vacancy preparation to be able to show the space as a true blank slate. Through white-boxing the space, owners show that the space has high ceilings with an industrial feel, an aesthetic that many office users are interested in, but at a significantly lower price point versus many office buildings. Another benefit of the office showroom product is that there …

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Like several other markets across the country, the Twin Cities is experiencing the peak of the post-recession construction cycle. However, the traditionally tight multifamily market is in one of the best positions to absorb new units. In fact, Minneapolis-St. Paul has consistently reported one of the lowest vacancy rates in the nation due to a strong economic base and pent up demand for new units. Metro Minneapolis is the second-largest economic center in the Midwest and the local economy has grown at an average of 3 percent over the past five years, a healthy rate in the Midwest. The 18 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in the area are a significant driver of job growth and rental demand, along with the hundreds of support firms. As a result, the unemployment rate is below 3 percent and among the lowest in the nation. Despite a lack of available talent, employers managed to create 30,600 jobs in the year-long period ending in the second quarter. Overall, payrolls expanded by 1.5 percent during that time. Employment growth is encouraging development across several sectors in the market. In South Minneapolis, construction along the Blue Line is taking shape as $300 million in projects are coming …

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Exciting times are in store for the senior living industry. A massive generation of baby boomers is entering the golden years of retirement and beyond, driving a wave of demand for seniors housing. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates 78 million baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. The youngest boomers are 54 this year and the oldest are 72, so we are just eclipsing the front end of the wave. In 2029, just 11 years from now, all baby boomers will be at least 65 years old, with the vast majority beyond age 65. This group will represent 20 percent of the U.S. population, and that is when the wave may start to resemble a tsunami. Strength in numbers Demographers agree that circumstances are favorable for growth in the seniors housing market, and the real estate industry is responding. In the Twin Cities, market conditions are balanced with an adequate supply of seniors housing to handle the first groups of seniors moving in. At this time, we observe that the greatest demand is for independent living versus assisted living, memory care or skilled nursing. Overbuilding has not been an issue in the Twin Cities and most of the Midwest …

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The retail sector in metro Minneapolis continues to adapt to changing consumer preferences, fast-moving economic opportunities and new state laws. Over the course of 2017, the retail real estate market showed positive growth in every category. Absorption of 1.4 million square feet surpassed the 1.3 million square feet of deliveries, according to CoStar Group. The rising cost of construction, low vacancy rate (3.1 percent) and increasing rental rates are creating new barriers to entry for retail businesses. The aforementioned factors, along with a newfound confidence in the rising economy, are causing landlords of all magnitude to become more selective with the quality of tenants they accept. Landlords will continue to become more reserved with regard to the tenant allowances they provide for new tenants. We have seen retail giants such as Walmart and Target add new services that emphasize both value and convenience and bring shoppers back for quick fill-in trips. Minneapolis-based Target Corp. announced the public rollout of its Target Restock program, a next-day delivery service for household essentials that is designed to compete with Amazon’s Prime Pantry. After being beta-tested by its employees, the program is currently only available in about nine markets, but plans are to slowly …

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The Minneapolis retail market ended the second quarter with a vacancy rate of 3.1 percent. The freestanding retail segment (buildings not contained within a shopping center) posted a vacancy rate of 1.8 percent. Over the past year, there has been a pattern of positive absorption in the market. The average quoted asking retail rental rate at the end of the second quarter was $13.94 per square foot. Comparably, a year ago this rate was $13.29 per square foot. Meanwhile, construction of retail properties has been on an upward climb. Within the past four quarters, 1.2 million square feet of retail space has been built, and there is an additional 892,910 square feet in progress, according to CoStar Group. Net absorption continues Retail net absorption was moderate in Minneapolis in the second quarter of 2017, totaling 484,120 square feet. That’s up from 135,536 square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter and 366,652 square feet in the fourth quarter of 2016. However, these figures are all down from the third quarter of 2016, when 638,183 square feet were positively absorbed in the market. Several tenants have moved out of large blocks of space in 2017. For example, Sears vacated 125,209 …

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Following the recession, demand for multifamily development took off in many areas of the country. We predicted it as significant economic and demographic changes were happening, spurring a shift from homeownership to renting. As a result, the multifamily sector experienced a resurgence that hadn’t been seen in decades. In some cities where an abundance of multifamily projects have been delivered, there is discussion of potential saturation. That’s not the case in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, where demand for multifamily developments remains strong and the vacancy rate is an extremely low 2.6 percent. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, at the end of 2016 the vacancy rate in the Twin Cities compared quite favorably with other metropolitan areas such as San Antonio, Texas (13.6 percent); Tampa, Fla., (11.6 percent); and Tulsa, Okla. (10.2 percent). Keep in mind that a 5 percent vacancy rate is considered to be a stabilized market. Healthy job growth Several economic factors continue to drive apartment demand in the Twin Cities, including job growth, low unemployment and a strong base for business expansion. Minnesota ranks third in the nation for number of Fortune 500 companies per capita. Prominent corporations with headquarters …

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