Missouri

Private capital delivered several new investors to Kansas City in 2019 and the new year will undoubtedly see plenty of competitive bidding and elevated pricing. Overall, the investment market continues to be supported by Kansas City’s diversified economy, with job growth weighted on the Kansas side at 2.7 percent over Missouri’s 1.1 percent (as of August 2019). Targeting talent Kansas City’s low cost of living, educated workforce and business-friendly environment attracted several coastal employers to the Heartland. This trend will likely continue in 2020. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced the relocation of two research agencies from Washington, D.C., representing a landmark win with 525 total jobs. Other wins in 2019 included Honeywell’s centralization of its operational offices from Seattle to Kansas City; Niagara Bottling moving 50 jobs from California; Hostess Brands relocating a distribution center from Illinois; and CarMax announcing 300 jobs for its Customer Experience Center after completing a nationwide search. Annual employment growth (as of August 2019) delivered nearly 20,000 jobs with additions in healthcare, biotech and business services, substantiating the selling point of a diversified economy capable of weathering future storms. Employers have found their fit, but more importantly, their talent is seeing reasons they can …

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The Kansas City industrial real estate market recorded very healthy maturation in 2019. When surveying the strength of our market, we typically consider how many new tenants or users entered the market with major investments and how many development deals were announced. Diving into the analytics, it is exciting to see some disciplined characteristics of a solid industrial market, including a slight slowdown in the pace of market expansion, a diverse group of business types demanding space, and the swift adjustment to appropriately balance supply and demand. Users entering the market The highlight reel of industrial deals in 2019 was impressive. Notable transactions include a new 420,000-square-foot water bottling plant for Niagara in South Kansas City, a 2 million-square-foot logistics hub expansion for Kubota Tractor Corp., and a 765,000-square-foot food distribution center for Hostess Brands. Additionally, Walmart just announced plans for a 1.8 million-square-foot distribution center to add to its existing three distribution centers in the area. A variety of new auto suppliers have absorbed over 1 million square feet of space to serve the Ford and General Motors automotive plants. I’m often asked what industries are moving to Kansas City and my response is all of them. The type …

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The greater St. Louis metropolitan statistical area (MSA) includes the city of St. Louis, St. Louis County, Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, Warren and St. Charles County, as well as various counties in Illinois collectively known as the Metro East. The MSA ranks as the 21st largest in the country with a population of approximately 2.8 million residents and features many Fortune 500 and Fortune 1000 companies. St. Louis has a very diverse economy with the largest categories of employment base in transportation, utilities, education, healthcare, defense and professional/business services. The per capita income for approximately 1.5 million workers in the MSA is approximately $60,000 per year. With an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent, the MSA has had almost 11 quarters of sub-4 percent unemployment. In 2019 alone, payrolls across the MSA expanded 1.7 percent with a net gain of 23,100 jobs created. Of these, 1,500 jobs alone were created with the 2019 completion of Amazon’s first Missouri fulfillment center in St. Peters, which is a western suburb of St. Louis. Other major job creators include the 295-acre redevelopment project called Fenton Logistics Park in Fenton, which is at the forefront of transforming the logistics and manufacturing industries with 2.5 million square …

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The office market in St. Louis has remained very active over the past year. With very little speculative development, the St. Louis County vacancy rate for Class A office space has experienced little change but remains at a historic low of 11.1 percent. Demand remains for large blocks of space in the more desirable submarkets such as Clayton and West County, as there are limited options for existing space. This has created an opportunity for new, proposed office developments gaining securing commitments from large occupiers. Most, if not all, proposed multi-tenant office developments around St. Louis County are contingent upon significant leasing commitments before construction can commence. A few key trends have played a major role in why developers now have the ability to attract large tenants to new developments. Tenants searching for office space in excess of 25,000 square feet have been struggling to find contiguous and efficient options. Rental rates are at all-time highs, with some of the top-tier buildings achieving rents well over $30 per square foot. Lastly, tenants are using office space differently than before and new office developments are providing more efficient floor plates with multiple on-site amenities that tenants highly value today. Project examples …

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The St. Louis industrial market continues to rally after posting 22 straight quarters of positive absorption. Record leasing activity and historically low vacancy have put the region on pace to deliver another 6.5 million square feet of Class A industrial space in 2019. This is in a market that averages deliveries of approximately 2.5 million square feet annually. Current drivers engendering this industrial activity include the following. Discipline Developers in St. Louis have long been known for their disciplined approach to building. Vacancy in a stable market hovers near 7 percent for the region. The vacancy rate for industrial space leading into the third quarter was 5 percent, up slightly from the previous quarter, according to CoStar. Continued speculative development, particularly in the Metro East, added to the increase. This, coupled with a large vacancy left in Lakeview Commerce Center by World Wide Technologies as it shuffles into a new 2 million-square-foot facility in Gateway Commerce Center East, were the most evident culprits. Expect vacancy to uptick slightly again in the third quarter as speculative deliveries by NorthPoint Development at Gateway Tradeport along with Exeter in Gateway Commerce Center come online. E-commerce No discussion surrounding the industrial market would be …

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The St. Louis industrial market is in the middle of a significant construction boom. Total square footage under construction is at a record-high 6.3 million square feet, with 2.8 million square feet of activity completed in 2018. The last two years have experienced historically high levels of overall net absorption with 4 million square feet in 2017 and 5.6 million square feet in 2016. These absorption levels are significantly higher than pre-recession market numbers.   The expected 3 million square feet of positive absorption in 2018 is 1 million square feet higher than what had ever been recorded prior to 2014. A significant portion of this absorption is due to several large transactions in newly constructed, and often tax-abated, parks. Whether or not this level of construction and sizable deals is sustainable remains to be determined, but many trends within the economy indicate that this can continue.   The vacancy rate for the St. Louis industrial market dropped to 6.21 percent in the third quarter of 2018, the lowest rate since 2006. This drop in available space bumped average direct asking rates up to $4.58 per square foot, the highest level since before the recession.    Earth City and North …

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As most that pay attention to commercial real estate know, the retail real estate market is constantly evolving. That said, with change comes opportunity, and we are both recognizing and capitalizing on that opportunity in the Kansas City market. As has been the case for the last few years, we continue to see a significant amount of “right-sizing” from big box and junior box retailers. Although e-commerce remains a prevalent means of purchasing for consumers, retail closures are not as abundant as many have predicted. Rather, many retailers are tweaking their square footage needs in search of the perfect footprint to optimize in-store sales in conjunction with e-commerce. While e-commerce continues to gain market share, it still accounts for less than 10 percent of retail sales nationwide, as of last year. The need for brick-and-mortar stores remains imperative to the success of most retailers. In the Kansas City metro area, retail vacancy rates remain low at 5.6 percent as of the second quarter. While that is a slight increase over 5.5 percent in the first quarter, it is a significant improvement over last year’s second-quarter figure of 6.3 percent. A few major 2018 transactions contributing to the positive net absorption …

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It has been a banner year thus far for the St. Louis industrial market with yet another milestone achieved. Mid-year absorption totaled 2.5 million square feet of space, a number more closely suited for the entire year versus the halfway point. Fueled by continued absorption, the market has more than 5 million square feet of space under construction with vacancy of approximately 4.9 percent. The continued success is no surprise. But economic incentives, often overlooked and underappreciated, are the unsung heroes behind each industrial development around town. Gaining knowledge  Economic incentives have been a prerequisite in attracting or retaining businesses like Amazon, World Wide Technologies and Best Buy. But they do not just benefit large corporations; local and regional users are able to enjoy new Class A real estate in these developments as well. Why? Incentives help bridge the gap for the developer and the user to account for being in a low-rent, high-construction cost market, which is not a great recipe for new development. Yes, St. Louis boasts some of the lowest asking rents in the Midwest, currently averaging $4.70 per square foot for available industrial space. One would think that businesses would flock here because of the low …

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“If you build it, he will come.” Yes, you’ve heard the Field of Dreams reference before, but never has it rang truer than with the Kansas City industrial market. The construction of 500,000-square-foot buildings suddenly ignited tenants’ interest in that space size, so much so that in the past two years Kansas City has experienced a tremendous surge in growth. In fact, Kansas City is now ranked No. 6 on the list of the top 10 U.S. industrial markets for speculative construction deliveries, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Coming off a record 5.5 million square feet of positive net absorption in 2016, the market exceeded that number by 65.7 percent in 2017 with a staggering year-end total of 9.2 million square feet of absorption. Putting that kind of tenant demand into perspective is challenging. The consensus is that while Kansas City has enjoyed a boom period for the past few years, 2018 will prove to be the best year yet. For the past six years, the vacancy rate held steady, never going above 8.3 percent and never dropping below 7.1 percent. To better understand just how fast this market is growing, let’s examine some of the largest industrial markets in …

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With what appears to be a never-ending stream of construction, the biggest source for excitement coming into 2018 for the St. Louis industrial market is new, speculative development. According to research from Colliers International, construction completions exceeded 4 million square feet in 2017. This is the second-highest year of recorded construction volume for the market due to last year’s Goliath delivery of 6 million square feet. Currently, over 2 million square feet is under construction, with more slated for groundbreaking in 2018. One of the larger projects recently announced is NorthPoint Development’s proposed 300-acre industrial park in Hazelwood, situated in North St. Louis County. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, NorthPoint plans to develop over 3 million square feet focused on logistics and light industrial warehouse space. The big question, it seems, is how long can developers continue to find new tenants for their large, modern bulk developments in St. Louis? Even with high, positive absorption in both 2016 and 2017, expectations for continued growth may be tempered as we move forward in 2018. Looking back at 2017, we see the industrial vacancy rate for metro St. Louis dropped to 6.7 percent at the end of the year. This rate …

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