Austin remains a popular destination for institutional and private multifamily investors. In the first half of 2010, there was a scarcity premium as buyer demand far exceeded the number of properties offered for sale. It was common to give 50-plus property tours and receive roughly 40 offers for a fully marketed Class A apartment community. The enormous amount of investment capital raised in 2008 and 2009 struggled to find a home in early 2010. As apartment fundamentals improved, interest rates decreased and cap rates compressed, more product came to market in the third quarter of 2010. Subsequently, the number of investor tours and offers has been cut in half. Offers today are coming from well-capitalized low leverage private investors, pension fund advisors, private funds and public REITs. Urban Class A cap rates have dropped from 6.5 percent in late 2009 to an average of 4.75 percent today. Suburban Class A cap rates are trading around 5.25 percent. The 1980s to 1990s vintage, B class product, is trading in a range from 5.75 to 6.75 percent based on quality and location. The highest conventional apartment sales prices have occurred in and around the Central Business District (CBD) where mid-rise Class A …
Multifamily
The Portland multifamily market continues to slowly improve in spite of the unemployment rate stalemated at 10.6 percent — now entering its 10th month. When Portland headed into the recession, many believed its multifamily market would experience a similar plight to that seen in the Southern California and Arizona multifamily markets. It certainly dipped, but fortunately didn’t hit their low values estimated to be 50 to 60 percent below the original prices for some properties there. Rents have returned to pre-recession levels, concessions temporarily came into the market and net operation income went down, causing apartment values to decrease between 15 to 20 percent. But through the worse of the recession, and even today, vacancy has held around 5 percent. However, it should be noted that in some pockets of the Portland market, like Gresham, certain areas of Beaverton and outer Hillsboro submarkets, vacancies are somewhat higher. At first glance, when comparing Co-Star year-to-date multifamily sales numbers (August measure for transactions ≥ $1 million) of $196 million with $116 million in 2009, it appears that transaction sales numbers are up by 59 percent. Yet, on closer inspection, a different story emerges. Since the beginning of the year, there have been …
The resumption of job growth and significant reductions in new construction will support improvement in Dallas/Fort Worth apartment fundamentals through the end of the year. During the first half of 2010, employment in the metroplex increased by 32,600 jobs, a welcome turnaround after the loss of 124,000 positions during the recession. While the financial, information and trade, transportation and utilities sectors shed a combined 6,000 jobs in the first half, the government, manufacturing, and education and health services sectors led job creation, adding 34,000 positions. As a result, the unemployment rate in Dallas/Fort Worth dropped roughly 10 basis points to 8.2 percent in the first half and remains well below the national average. Developers will deliver approximately 7,600 apartment units in 2010, down nearly 56 percent from 2009 and more closely aligned with new-supply trends in 2006 and 2007. Construction remains focused on the Dallas side of the Metroplex, with developers in Tarrant County completing 2,675 units during the past year. New supply in Fort Worth was isolated to the North Arlington, Northern Tarrant County and Northwest Fort Worth submarkets. After rising 360 basis points through the recession, apartment vacancy in Dallas/Fort Worth declined 80 basis points to 8.9 percent …
San Francisco is not immune to the forces of gravity, but sometimes it appears that might be true for the city's apartment market. Across the country, the multifamily sector has weathered the Great Recession better than other asset classes. Availability of capital — both equity and debt — has resulted in relatively modest value declines compared to office, industrial and retail investments. Transaction volume has been relatively robust, largely attributable to the disassembly and re-sale of the former Lembi portfolio. Research indicates that in excess of 50 apartment sales were completed in the first half of 2010, for a total value representing about $120 million. Among the most active buyers were Flynn Investments, Klingbeil Capital Management and Tribeca Cos. Expect market activity to remain level or even increase, as buyer appetite has yet to be satisfied. The rental market also seems to have stabilized. According to Novato, California-based RealFacts, a national leader in apartment industry research, rents in San Francisco are only down modestly since second quarter of 2009, but they are up slightly in the first half of 2010. While occupancy is reported to be at a relatively low 94 percent, we believe this state may be a temporary …
The Orlando multifamily market has exhibited noticeable improvement this year, and is gaining momentum toward a very strong recovery. After 3 years of rent and occupancy losses due largely to the global recession, apartment fundamentals in Central Florida have registered gains again in 2010. With more than 207,000 new jobs expected locally through 2015 and a very favorable supply/demand balance during the next few years, investors see strong upside in the Orlando apartment market moving forward. Sales volume in Orlando has increased significantly through mid-year, and is up from the historic lows of 2009. Through June, the local market has seen approximately $188 million in multifamily sales — already approaching last year’s total of $219 million but still largely off the 2005 high of $3.2 billion. Cap rates have compressed considerably during the last several months, and most buyers are securing Freddie Mac debt on new acquisitions. Lenders have been the most active sellers in 2010 thus far, and institutional buyers have returned to the acquisition market. New private equity groups — both national and foreign — have also been drawn to Orlando during the last 12 months. Average rents are projected to increase about 1 percent in the second …
Despite a spike in supply last year and increasing competition from the affordable housing sector, San Antonio’s solid labor market and resilient economy will help to improve apartment fundamentals by the close of 2010. Following steep inventory additions in the first quarter, deliveries will slow significantly through the second half of the year. As renter demand begins to outpace supply growth, owners will trim incentives, reversing 10 quarters of revenue declines. The lower tiers will register the greatest revenue increases, supported by vacancy improvements toward the end of the year. Foreclosure activity has increased 19 percent over last year, and some top-tier renters will likely to make the transition into homeownership this year as these properties come to market. Class B and Class C operators will get a boost from the strengthened labor market as traditionally blue-collar employment sectors start to recover rapidly. In the construction sector, for instance, roughly 1,200 construction workers will be hired in the next few months to complete the Brooke Army Medical Center. During the last 12 months, developers have ramped up the pace of completions to 3,620 units, or a 2.5 percent inventory expansion, following the delivery of 2,490 units in the previous year. …
What a difference a year can make. At this time last year, the Detroit and Southeastern Michigan multifamily housing markets were experiencing some of their worst economic times since the early 1970s. But with recent announcements from Ford and General Motors concerning first quarter profits, there appears to be hope for the troubled region. Because the region has been so challenged during the past 18 months, there has been very little new development planned for 2010. But in 2011, nearly 2,800 apartment units are planned in the metro region, representing a potential 1.3 percent increase in the current inventory. One recent success story within the city is Garden View Estates, a mixed-use development with affordable housing, including rental units, senior co-ops and single-family homes. Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based Windham Development is the principal in the residential portion of the project, which celebrated its grand opening in September 2009. These types of developments are going to play a key role in re-growth within the city because of joint efforts between private developers, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Detroit Housing Commission and the City of Detroit. We can anticipate new development in Ann Arbor and downtown Detroit. Ann Arbor …
The Tampa market has passed through the most severe phase of the recession, a period during which the apartment vacancy rate climbed 360 basis points. In some Pinellas County submarkets, vacancy will surpass 11 percent this year as the local unemployment rate exceeds metro and state levels, while subdued population growth will reduce housing demand. Hillsborough County submarkets, meanwhile, will fare somewhat better as completions slow. Still, sluggish demand will be behind apartment performance, forcing owners to continue to offer concessions to maintain sufficient occupancy levels. The metro area’s vacancy rate is expected to be among the highest in the country this year, and revenues will contract sharply. In 2010, employers will cut 4,000 jobs, a 0.3 percent reduction, but an improvement from last year, when 51,000 positions were eliminated. Developers are forecast to complete 1,000 units this year, down from 1,400 new rentals in 2009. Planned projects total about 5,100 units, or 3 percent of existing stock. Although supply growth will ease in 2010, demand will remain weak, resulting in a 30 basis point rise in vacancy to 10.8 percent. Last year, vacancy climbed 180 basis points. This year, asking rents should fall 3.8 percent to $767 per month, …
The Atlanta multifamily market has experienced a 200-point jump in its vacancy rate when compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The market-wide total rate is sitting at 12. 5 percent, and the rate for Class B and Class C properties is a few percentage points higher. These numbers are, of course, a function of the recession and the overall lack of job stability in the city. When the jobs return, says Andrew Mays of Marcus & Millichap’s Atlanta office, the vacancy rate will start to recede. “Unemployment is the main deterrent to multifamily growth,” he says. “It’s such a function of the job market right now, and until we work our way through this, it’s going to take a little while to get that number back in check. Ideally, Atlanta performs much better around the high single digits.” Increased transactions from high net-worth buyers from South Florida, the Northeast and Chicago, along with the occasional foreign spender, has helped prevent a complete shutdown of the market. Mays says the number of transactions, and interest from international investors, will increase once lenders release more distressed assets onto the market. “Moving forward, It’s not going to be ‘06 or ‘07 …
Several factors have contributed to the softness in the St. Louis apartment market and are expected to continue to present operational challenges in the near term. A spike in construction has been met with the weak demand caused by the slumping labor market. In fact, demand for rental housing contracted 2.2 percent year-over-year in the third quarter — the largest decline in more than 20 years — and will likely fall until payrolls begin to expand. Owners have increased concessions to roughly 26 days of free rent. With vacancy on track to rise further this year, concessions will remain elevated, particularly in the Maryland Heights/Northwest County submarket. Area operators are currently offering renters nearly 40 days of free rent, the most of any submarket in the metro area. Nonetheless, many residents are opting to relocate out of the area and into St. Charles to capture lower rents or into Clayton to be near the metro’s healthiest employment corridors. As such, owners in the Clayton/Mid-County submarket have kept concessions relatively flat during the past 12 months. Turning to investment sales, transaction velocity has slowed in the St. Louis market due primarily to reduced pricing and increased buyer caution regarding weakened fundamentals. …