While a rapidly deteriorating local economy is weighing on apartment operations in Detroit, weakness is expected to be mitigated by residents remaining hesitant to transition away from rental units. The Detroit metro area has one of the most affordable housing markets in the country, as overbuilding and a declining population have resulted in a significant supply/demand imbalance. Nonetheless, many local inhabitants are exhibiting caution when considering a move into a home due to still-falling prices and the high-risk employment market. The weak national economy is limiting options for job seekers outside of the metro area, which could stem the tide of out-migration in the short term, boosting demand for area apartments. On the supply side, development activity is minimal again this year, as construction costs continue to outweigh attainable rents. Competition is emerging from fractured condominium projects, however, some of which are offering units for lease until demand rebounds. Early estimates indicate that employers decreased payrolls by 6.8 percent, or 130,700 jobs, in the year ending in the first quarter. As auto-related companies restructure, 102,000 area positions have been eliminated in the last 6 months. While vacancy does not fluctuate significantly in Detroit, mounting job losses will force some local …
Multifamily
While the meltdown of the housing market originally benefited the multifamily sector — as more homeowners transitioned to renters — the current recession and its rising unemployment has started to affect activity. “Right now, it is all about the economy,” says Kevin Wolfgang, president of New Castle-based Evergreen Realty and recently elected president of the Delaware Apartment Association. “Our industry is directly affected by the job market, so the increased amount of unemployment has created significant operation challenges.” Multifamily owners in Delaware are weathering the storm by focusing on the operation of the properties — trying to find ways to make them as efficient as possible. This has slowed down sales considerably. Owners who are still receiving a steady cash flow are seeing no reason to sell for less money. “Most investors are very cautious right now,” Wolfgang says. “No one is chasing deals, and there is nothing that I have seen as having a major impact on the market right now.” Evergreen Realty’s main activity has been its purchase and upcoming redevelopment of Hampston Walk Apartments, a 370-unit community located in New Castle. The company purchased the blighted property in mid-2008 and is repositioning it with renovations to unit …
The Reno-Sparks apartment market will continue to face occupancy challenges due to job losses at local casinos, hotels and other gaming-related companies due to the current recession. Effective rents will remain flat in 2009 and in some cases decrease, while occupancies are expected to decline, building on a trend established in second half 2008. Landlords will be forced to offer concessions as they compete for new and existing tenants. Apartment owners across the market are vying to attract new tenants and retain existing ones. As a result, concessions are ranging from reductions in deposits to a full month of free rent, especially at properties with management issues. Remaining flat, the local economy was experiencing unemployment of approximately 8 percent in November 2008 due to layoffs in many sectors, including the leisure and hospitality industry. In the 1970s, 30 percent of the employees in Reno worked in the gaming industry, but today only 17 percent are involved in that sector. In fact, the leading employers of Reno’s increasingly diversifying economy are the Washoe County School District, IGT, Catholic Healthcare West and the gaming-hospitality industry. Looking at fundamentals, fourth quarter 2008 vacancy was 9.4 percent in the Reno-Sparks MSA, reflecting an increase …
Multifamily investment activity in Connecticut is expected to gain some additional momentum this year after a reasonably strong 2008. Last year, investors’ fears of the added risks associated with lower-tier assets limited transactions to mostly Class A and B+ properties in the state’s urban areas. While reduced investor demand for properties in secondary and tertiary locations will continue, buyers are expected to target Class B/C apartments in stable CBD markets. Buyers will likely target lower-tier properties in the New Haven and Hartford core, Hamden and the Fairfield/Bridgeport/Trumbull Triangle, where students drive demand for properties. Fewer Class A transactions and the presence of low-leverage opportunistic buyer funds will likely result in a shift in pricing trends, causing cap rates to increase to the mid-7 to 9 percent range. Apartment properties are trading and being financed in the region, thanks largely to agency lenders and still-active local and regional commercial banks. With the fall of the CMBS market, a financing void has emerged in the local and national markets. In 2006 and 2007 CMBS originations nationwide totaled more than $400 billion. Our research suggests that more than $80 billion in CMBS loans will come due in 2009-2010 and recapitalizing those loans will …
Evan P. Kristol is senior vice president of Investments and Still Hunter, III, is first vice president of Investments for Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. 1. What area is your expertise South Florida Apartments and Distressed Multifamily Properties (Broward County) 2. What trends do you see presently in multifamily development in your area? In recent years, strong population growth and an expanding job market drove demand for apartments in South Florida. Economic uncertainty involving the residential market has created an unstable situation for local developers causing them to become guardedly optimistic regarding their future construction plans. There is not much new development taking place. Unsold condos continue to compete with apartments. The positive aspect of supply-side fundamentals is an ongoing reduction in permit issuance. In Broward County 1,400 multifamily units were issued last year, an amount that is expected to fall to fewer than 1,000 units in 2009. 3. Who are the active multifamily developers in your area? Minto Group Inc, Altman Development Corporation, Gables Residential and ZOM are a few active developers in South Florida. 4. Please name one or two significant multifamily developments in your area. What impact will these projects have …
While national multi-housing trends have begun to show recessionary weakness, Indianapolis area market fundamentals have held up well over the past 12 months. Indianapolis has long been one of the more affordable single-family markets in the country and until recently had been well-supplied with several very efficient large single-family developers. The deterioration of this industry is the single largest factor responsible for the city’s stable and improving multi-housing performance. The Indianapolis multi-housing market consists of 130,000 units in 683 communities (larger than 20 units). The average community size is 191 units. Market wide occupancies in Indianapolis bottomed out in 2003 at 87.1 percent and have been steadily climbing since to 90.9 percent in 2008. During this same period concessions have declined and 2008 rent growth was 2.2 percent, placing rents at $659 ($.75 per square foot). The city’s top 50 communities, once threatened to a greater degree by single-family housing, have faired well over the past several quarters. As with most seasonal markets, the Indianapolis market shows a very predictable bell shaped occupancy curve with fourth and first quarter occupancy lows and peaks in the second and third quarters. Until first quarter 2009, the impact of the current recessionary environment …
If there’s any good news to be had in today’s challenging economic climate, perhaps it’s that now is an opportune time to be an apartment investor in metropolitan Phoenix. While the credit crunch has undeniably put a dent in sales activity — the difference between $52 million so far this year compared to $600 million for all of 2008 and $3.5 billion during 2007 — interest from well-capitalized private investors hunting for bargains among the rising selection of lender-owned properties for sale may provide a boost moving forward. The number of distressed properties has crept into the double digits since early 2009. Offerings in good locations, where the pricing reflects the market correction, can easily garner 15 to 20 offers, on par with bidding activity occurring even during the best of economic times. Active investors are primarily individuals and private capital sources searching for positive leverage and high returns. Meanwhile, REITs and advisors looking to firm up balance sheets, developers needing to pay off maturing construction loans, and lenders hoping to unload distressed properties make up the bulk of sellers. Another piece of good news: tighter lending requirements, coupled with a downturn in population and job growth, have effectively put …
Apartment conditions in St. Louis will soften this year due to job losses and localized oversupply; however, some submarkets in the metro area will record a relatively strong performance. The local labor market is projected to be weighed down by the manufacturing sector and the trade, transportation and utilities segment, resulting in approximately 12,000 job cuts in 2009, which will ease apartment demand. Vacancy is projected to climb 100 basis points this year to 8.6 percent, the highest rate since early 2006. As a result, owners will reduce rents in an effort to maintain occupancy levels. The average asking rent is forecast to end the year at $722 per month, a contraction of 1 percent, following a 1.7 percent advance in 2008. In the near term, fundamentals will firm in the Airport/Interstate 70 and Clayton/Mid-County submarkets, as their proximity to arterial routes will continue to generate healthy tenant demand. As such, vacancy is forecast to retreat approximately 60 basis points to 9.5 percent this year in the Airport/I-70 submarket, while vacancy in the Clayton/Mid-County area is expected to fall roughly 30 basis points to 7 percent. Class A properties near interstates 270 and 170 are projected to outperform as a …
The struggles in the capital markets that began to take hold during the second half of 2008 have put the brakes on much of the investment sales activity across all asset classes, but multifamily sales in Indianapolis have weathered the financial storm better than any other sector. Investment sales of multifamily housing in Indianapolis fared reasonably well when compared to other major Midwest cities. Last year, 19 major properties were sold in the Indianapolis area for just less than $200 million and at an average cap rate of 7.98 percent, according to Real Capital Analytics and Colliers Turley Martin Tucker. While the average U.S. cap rate for multifamily sales stood at 6.2 percent during the first three quarters of 2008, Indianapolis posted an average cap rate of 7.4 percent. The 12-month average price per unit for higher quality assets in Indianapolis is $61,022, compared to $100,792 for similar sales throughout the United States. Sales of properties categorized as Class B to non-performing assets have pushed the average unit price down and cap rates up into the 8.5-to-10 percent range. Multifamily properties that needed a total repositioning were trading in the 10-to-12 percent range based on pro-forma. In 2007, two major …
We expect 2009 to continue to be a tough year for commercial/investment real estate, but multifamily is certainly the preferred product type for institutional and private investors delivering stable, solid returns, particularly in the supply-constrained New England markets. Transaction velocity was actually fairly strong through EOY 2008 although cap rates and IRR have increased by 100 to 150-plus basis points from a year ago, and currently we are pricing properties using cash-on-cash returns based on true, twelve month trailing operating data. Fortunately, the greatest demand from institutional investors is for well-constructed Class “B+” to “A” properties in the region. While we don’t have the problem of shadow inventory that we do in Florida, Arizona and other markets, we have noticed an increase in vacancy for Class A and B properties in the region. Occupancy in a number of properties we analyze for our monthly same-store rent comp survey has dipped, but we’re still ahead of most other national markets. We are generally seeing an increase in vacancy in New Haven, Fairfield, Middlesex, New London and Hartford County properties from 100 to 400 basis points but we expect strengthening later this year. After 30-plus years in this business, my honest opinion …