These days, one of the most widely-shared facts about Texas’ economy is the fact that the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex adds about 360 new residents per day. But a lesser-known part of that statistic involves the fact that Fort Worth is experiencing a faster rate of population growth than Dallas. According to U.S. Census data, Fort Worth was the third fastest-growing city in the country from 2012 to 2017. In 2018, Fort Worth gained 20,000 new residents, compared to just 2,000 new Dallasites. According to the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Cowtown is now the 13th-most populous city in the United States, having surpassed San Francisco and Columbus, Ohio, to reach a total of 895,000 residents. On the heels of all that population growth has come a rapidly expanding local economy. Census data shows that Fort Worth saw more than a 21 percent increase in its population of employed residents in the five years leading up to 2017. This growth enabled Fort Worth to become the third-fastest-growing U.S. job market. Part of Fort Worth’s appeal is the fact that it has a diverse employment base, with growth in medicine, manufacturing and warehousing/distribution being especially pronounced during this cycle. …
Office
There is a widely held belief that investing in the Chicago office real estate market in 2020 is potentially a bad bet. While some investors are concerned by headlines decrying the fiscal health of Illinois, the supposed overvaluing of Cook County tax assessments and softening of the Chicago market, our experience tells us those fears will create opportunities for contrarian investors willing to dig deeper. Because these misperceptions are scaring away some institutional investors, the time is ripe for continued investment in Chicago office properties to take advantage of opportunities that more cautious investors are passing up. Municipal realities At the state level, much has been written about Illinois’ fiscal health. In a report released in September 2019, government watchdog Truth in Accounting labeled Illinois a “Sinkhole State” and ranked it 49th in the nation for its financial condition. After failing to raise enough revenue by hiking taxes to fund the state’s debt, leaders from Illinois have said that massive pension reform — not tax hikes — is the way out of our current debt crisis. Consequently, office real estate investors should not be overly concerned that the state of Illinois will potentially shift the state’s tax burden onto their …
While there are plenty of news stories touting Detroit’s comeback, it’s the actual 2019 year-end numbers backing up the claims with solid momentum in the office and lending sectors. And the numbers are capturing the attention of national investors, not to mention lenders who were on the bench for years and years. Office occupancy Office vacancy across metropolitan Detroit decreased from 24.5 percent in 2013 to 13.8 percent as of the fourth quarter of 2019, according to national leasing firm CBRE. Asking rates have climbed since 2009 and vacancy rates have dropped. These figures even include the 23 percent-vacant Southfield submarket and the 19.5 percent-vacant Auburn Hills submarket, which with their combined total square footage account for 23.4 percent of the total metropolitan Detroit office market, dragging up the total average vacancy rate. Focusing on the central business district (CBD), the post-recession predictions of a city powering through the real estate cycle are holding true. The total direct office vacancy in JLL’s latest Detroit CBD Skyline report is 7.7 percent. That figure includes approximately 500,000 vacant square feet in the GM-owned and largely self-occupied Renaissance Center (RenCen) complex. Remove the RenCen from the equation, and the Detroit CBD skyline (i.e. …
It’s no secret that Austin has exploded with jobs and people over the last 10 years, and evidence of the growth has perhaps been most visible in the asking rents for office space. Rental rates in Austin’s most sought-after neighborhoods have essentially doubled since 2010, when major tech firms really began eyeing the state capital for its pro-business climate and supply of educated workers, as well as its high quality of living. Today, we see full-service office rates well above $50 per square foot in the hottest submarkets. According to our data, the average full-service rent in downtown Austin typically ranges from $65 to $69 per square foot. Submarkets like The Domain and East Austin command rates that typically average about $55 and $50 per square foot, respectively, on a full-service basis. These rates include operating expenses which can be between $15 to $25 per foot depending on location, mainly due to property tax increases found in these higher density areas of Austin. While these rates appear to be a smaller issue for the tech giants that drive significant growth among office-using industries in Austin, the rapid rate of appreciation is unquestionably pricing out some users that also need to …
The Denver office market remains strong. Vacancy continued to compress in 2019 as rental rates and sale prices forged ahead to the highest levels in history, allowing landlords and sellers to remain in control of the market. Class A office transactions accounted for $1.7 billion in office sales in Denver Metro over the past year, versus $1.2 billion of Class B office sales, with average market cap rates of 6.6 percent and 7 percent, respectively. Interestingly enough, vacancy rates are higher in Class A product at 11.7 percent versus 10.1 percent in Class B. Sale prices and rental rates continued to grow in both classes. However, there was a significant difference in rental rate and sale price numbers as Class B lagged by about 20 percent to 25 percent in both categories. With a potential downturn looming, it begs the question, is Class A or Class B office a better long-term value? Considering rental rates and income are a direct derivative of what investors will pay for office buildings, investors must ask themselves whether rental rates are sustainable. It is apparent that the “chase” for the cool, hip, new Class A office is real, but the question is whether Class …
With Kansas City unemployment hovering at cyclical lows around 3.5 percent and the war for talent at an all-time high, companies must leverage their real estate to attract and retain top talent. At the height of the corporate office boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the average space per employee ranged from approximately 275 to more than 325 square feet. Today, that number has shrunk to 175 square feet per employee and some predictions see that number moving even closer to 100 square feet. These changes are driven by a recognition that companies are adopting better workplace strategies. These newer, more efficient spaces deliver a more engaging experience for employees and provide a stronger return on real estate costs for companies. There is no denying that these new spaces cost more on a per-square-foot basis. Cushman & Wakefield research reported that the weighted average asking rate for Class A space in the Kansas City market was $25.04 per square foot on a full-service basis in the third quarter of 2019. Yet the net asking rates for the buildings with this new class of product range anywhere from the high $20s to the high $30s. Occupancy costs for new …
In the largest office markets of the Northeast, landlords are competing to attract valuable corporate tenants by providing the highest quality work-life balance for the region’s talented workforce. The Boston, New York and Philadelphia office markets are among the most competitive in the country. While factors like salary, commute time and personal fulfilment remain important in deciding where to work, employees are now placing more emphasis on amenities and work-life balance in their final decisions. Consequently, employers are making a point to meet those demands by investing in properties with convenient access to those amenities, in particular fitness, dining and transit. According to Colliers International, Class A office asking rents in Boston rose 9.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019, commanding $100 per square foot in the city’s hottest markets. Lauren Vecchione, senior vice president in the Boston office of Colliers, says that landlords have to provide competitive amenities if they want to command and achieve the asking rents in submarkets with the strongest demand, including the Seaport, Financial District, Back Bay and Cambridge’s Kendall Square. “Larger and smaller tenants alike are focused on finding efficient spaces that allow them to build out a creative office experience for their …
Phoenix experienced 1.8 million square feet of absorption and an overall office vacancy rate dipping to 17 percent by the end of 2019. Now that the New Year is here, the city is poised to continue its positive progression as healthcare, science, technology and the professional office service sector continue to show steady employment growth. Arizona ranked third in the U.S. with 2.6 percent job creation, as of the third quarter of 2019. That’s 74,000 new jobs for the year, including 6,900 jobs in the science and technology sector and 14,000 new jobs in the recession-resistant healthcare sector. Companies are focused on finding cost-effective, business-friendly office environments and submarkets with access to top talent, and Phoenix checks all those boxes. Much of the state’s top talent is Millennials and Generation Z who are increasingly willing to move to lower cost of living cities that boast a high quality of life. Arizona ranked No. 1 in inbound state migration in 2018, with 273,714 inbound arrivals. We expect to see similar positive net migration numbers in 2019. The Census Bureau estimates that Phoenix will be the fourth most populous city in the U.S., with a population of 2.2 million, by the end …
Honolulu’s office market has remained relatively unchanged for the past decade, but recent events have led to a dramatic shift in the direction of the Downtown submarket. Office vacancy rates in Downtown Honolulu have increased consistently in recent years, and steady leasing activity has led to declining vacancy. The Downtown office market is currently the tightest it has ever been. The vacancy rate in Downtown Honolulu decreased 70 basis points to 12.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019, which is the lowest vacancy rate for the submarket in more than nine years. The average gross asking rate in Downtown decreased slightly from $2.94 per square foot to $2.90 per square foot in third-quarter 2019. A significant amount of movement within the Downtown office market is driven by government need. The federal government, IRS, and city and county of Honolulu, as well as other engineering firms tied to civil projects, are some of the most active employers when it comes to leasing office space in the area. Non-governmental office-using job growth has stagnated in the past four years, which has hindered more growth in the overall office market. Unemployment statewide was at 2.7 percent for October 2019, according to Hawaii …
The Dallas office market has changed drastically over the past 10 years. Though Far North Dallas has gotten its fair share of notoriety during this time (and justifiably so), the fundamentals of North Texas as a great place for business are sparking growth and activity across the market for established companies and those looking to relocate. Consider Las Colinas, which over the last few years has seen several major headquarter relocations, including large healthcare providers that have expanded or consolidated their regional workforces in this area. Currently, Dallas has 5.3 million square feet of Class A office product under construction, 2 million of which is in Las Colinas. In fact, since 2009, Las Colinas has added over 54,000 employees. That’s equivalent to a full Boeing 737 landing in Las Colinas every day for a year, unloading its passengers and everyone staying. Even with this remarkable influx of new jobs and our growing population, the competition for talent in Dallas remains fierce. Jason Savings, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, recently noted that we’re in the midst of a historically tight labor market, the likes of which haven’t been seen since 1969. The Irving–Las Colinas submarket leads the …