Oklahoma

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By Stuart Graham, Senior Vice President, CBRE; Mark Inman, Senior Vice President, CBRE; and Kendra Roberts, Associate, CBRE The Oklahoma City retail market has had a growing and changing landscape over the past few years as the sector’s healthy fundamentals continue to draw both local and national investors. Although much of the growth has been focused on the downtown Oklahoma City area, we are beginning to see a new hotspot emerge in the Far North neighborhoods. High-quality schools and affordable housing in the Far North Oklahoma City submarket of Edmond, as well as in the surrounding neighborhoods, have been major draws for young families. Both the Deer Creek and Edmond School Districts rank among the top three school districts in the state and also enjoy high national rankings. As a result of these residential and educational features that are attracting younger households and driving population growth, the Far North Oklahoma City submarket has recently seen a significant uptick in both retail investment and development activity that better support this underserved and growing community. To illustrate this submarket’s rise, consider the fact that nearly 20 percent of the total volume of retail product currently under construction in the Oklahoma City area …

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From a manufacturing perspective, Oklahoma City has historically been considered a “tertiary market” when stacked against South Central and Midwest power players such as Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin and Denver. As large manufacturing users consider multiple markets in the Central United States, Oklahoma City is often included in the initial list but typically fails to make the short list for various reasons. However, as labor costs rise, Oklahoma City may find itself being pushed to the front of the line. Past Misses Oklahoma City’s industrial market totals approximately 108 million square feet, making it a smaller market than DFW, Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin or Denver. Primarily driven by the oil & gas, aerospace and consumer goods industries, this market’s fundamentals tend to move in lockstep with oil & gas commodity prices. The city has tried to diversify the economy over the past decade and bring in non-oil & gas users. But there is still room for improvement. The metro has seen its share of growth; however, overall industrial construction still pales in comparison to larger markets. Growing Appeal The industrial booms seen in DFW, Houston, Kansas City, San Antonio, Austin and Denver over …

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As expected and much anticipated, the global rise in oil prices has given the petroleum industry a significant boost and spurred Oklahoma City’s economic recovery. The resurgence, demonstrated in part by a three-year-high in hiring this year, is drawing out-of-state multifamily investors and bringing greater interest from companies looking to relocate or expand. In mid-October, FedEx more than doubled its warehouse space with the opening of a new 270,000-square-foot distribution facility in north Oklahoma City. The expansion came in response to the increase in outbound e-commerce volume, another indication that the local economy has turned a corner. Most of the new jobs created in Oklahoma City through September 2018 were professional and business positions. The sector grew by 4.4 percent year-over-year, easily the widest margin of any employment sector. Overall, the total number of jobs filled during that same period was 13,500, an increase of 2.1 percent. For the complete year, employers anticipate adding about 14,000 new positions. The rebound in hiring has led to the unemployment rate dropping to 3.2 percent, nearly its lowest level in a decade. Supply-Demand Balance The city’s economic recovery is particularly well-timed for multifamily investors, as it coincides with a reduction in the metro’s …

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Retail real estate in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is nearing its cyclical peak, and users that want to continue expanding in the metroplex are being hamstrung by a lack of quality space and surging rents. According to CoStar Group, DFW’s retail vacancy rate currently stands at 4.4 percent, a record low that the research firm expects to hold steady or even improve in the coming years. Rents have grown by more than 3 percent annually over the last five years, and are now 15 percent higher than their pre-recession peaks. Put simply, DFW is a landlord’s market. As such, retailers that have had success in the metroplex over the last decade and want to keep opening new stores should be considering other markets. One of the ideal landing spots for these users lies a mere 200 miles up Interstate 35 in Oklahoma City. According to CoStar, Oklahoma City’s retail vacancy has grown by approximately 100 basis points over the last two years, currently clocking in at 6.1 percent. There is very little new product under construction — less than half a million square feet — but asking rents in Oklahoma City average $14.40 per square foot, compared to $18.89 per square …

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In the third quarter of 2014, the Oklahoma City multifamily market recorded 11 transactions totaling 1,537 units for a sales volume of $82.4 million. This is an average price per unit of $53,625. The third quarter experienced a significantly higher sales volume than the first quarter of 2014, increasing 305 percent. The total sales volume for 2014 overall has reached $182.7 million, which is 33 percent lower than the same time period in 2013, when the total sales volume was just over $272 million. However, the total units sold was down only 11 percent compared to last year, which indicates the quality of assets trading is lower than those properties trading  in 2013. For example, in the first three quarters of 2013, just over $215 million in Class A properties were sold, compared to just over $37 million in 2014. This is an 83 percent decrease in total volume of Class A properties and caused the total multifamily average price per unit to drop by 24 percent. This is not an indication of values declining. In fact, the opposite is true. Properties that are being fully marketed and that are providing access to as many buyers as possible are fetching …

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As the national market recession began in 2008, and started to settle in throughout the city of Houston around mid-year 2009, businesses focused on the implementation of efficiency, accomplishing more with fewer resources applied to the daily routine. In most business models, the most expensive resources are the current staff, followed closely by office space. In that most office leases are illiquid, downsizing of non-essential personnel is logically the most expedient way to an immediate impact on the bottom line during an economic downturn. However, this also results in an immediate surplus of office space per person or phantom vacancy; a pattern logically should trend downward during a recessionary cycle in the economy. According to CoStar data from the 3rd quarter 2011 webinar, the average square footage per worker has increased by almost 10% since 2008, and leveling off after 2009 without significant decrease. Certainly, the trend is quite the opposite of what we would expect today, arguably even in a stable economy as the trend is increasingly toward efficiency. However, such excess may not only be to the lack of the ability to dispose of such vacancy, but the intentional positioning where employers are seeking to recruit quality personnel …

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What area is your expertise? My specialty is retail investment sales in Oklahoma. What trends do you see presently in retail development in your area? The Oklahoma City metropolitan area has experienced minimal local tenant turnover, but for the most part, leasing has stabilized. With the construction of new life style centers, mall tenants and even mall anchors are moving to the new open air developments. What type of retail product is doing well in your area? Recently developed shopping centers occupied with national tenants remain the front runner for solid retail investments and, as in most markets, well-located neighborhood centers continue to be successful. Free standing retail is still solid with very few vacancies; however, the verdict is still out as to what fallout the Metropolitan area will have from nationwide store closings. What retailers are new to your area? Conn s is the most recent retailer to the Oklahoma City area opening one store with three more planned. Who are the active retail developers in your area? Jackson Development, Sooner Investment Group, Blanton Property Co., Burk Collins & Co. and Larry Owsley. Please name one or two significant retail developments in your area. What impact will these projects …

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