The Houston retail market has changed dramatically in recent years, but 2014 has seen historically strong real estate fundamentals to date. It is a sign of considerable economic strength that per capita personal income reached a new peak in 2013, even while Houston experienced the largest change in population across U.S. metro areas, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Houston’s population increase of nearly 137,700 over the year ending in July 2013 outpaced all other metro areas, with New York in second place (111,749) and Dallas/Fort Worth in third (108,112). Additionally, with Houston employment growth among the strongest in country, it should come as no surprise that household incomes are rising and retail sales are strong. A Retail Landlord’s Market Retail occupancy in Houston reached nearly 93 percent during the first quarter of 2014. While retail availability is extremely limited across the city, it is particularly tight inside the Loop as well as in the northwest areas inside of Beltway 8. Class A product is in high demand across all submarkets, so much so that the highest profile centers currently have no availability. However, despite this high demand, retail construction activity is less than a quarter …
TX
Purpose-built student housing has always been a dynamic market segment with unique challenges and opportunities. As an asset class, student housing fared well during the recent downturn, but the micro-market nature of these developments precludes too many generalizations. What makes a university a strong market for new student housing is in large part due to the dynamics at work in that specific university community. In addition, student housing being developed today reveals a trend toward high-end finishes and lavish amenities. Hyper-local Market On a national scale, the student housing market is large and growing. As the recession drove more people back to college, developers began adding new beds to campus communities across the nation. The swelling ranks of college enrollment, even as the job market declined, is one reason student housing continued to provide strong returns in a weak economy. But within a university community, there is a finite market for off-campus housing. For example, if a university has 20,000 students, one-third may live on-campus and one-third may commute or live in conventional housing. The other third — 6,500 students — in the market for off-campus housing likely represents the total market. If there were already 5,000 beds available, the …
Austin is maturing as a commercial real estate market. Over the past few years, the city has witnessed an increase in institutional and foreign capital attracted to Class A office assets in the metro area. Most of the new investors in Austin are capitalizing on continued rental rate growth in the office sector, but is this growth sustainable? Austin’s overall office occupancy rate and rental rates have traditionally been a series of steep peaks and valleys, but will future growth be dictated by these historical trends? Tech Bubble Bursts Leading up to the burst of “tech bubble” in 2001, office leasing in Austin was in full swing, with an occupancy rate of 93 percent. Dun & Bradstreet ranked Austin as the top city for high-tech startups in 1999, and Angelou Economic Advisors estimates that more than 200 new companies were added to Austin’s roster of technology firms in that year. Austin companies secured an estimated $740 million in venture financing in the first three quarters of 1999, more than triple the funding placed in all of 1998. The absorption witnessed leading up to this bubble was phenomenal, but the growth was inflated by the source of the rental payments. These …
Is the Dallas/Fort Worth multifamily market headed back to the same level of intensity we experienced from 2005 to 2007? Most of the signs suggest that we are on track to not only meet this same amount of demand, but also outperform the market of the mid-2000s. So what are the drivers that are leading this investor demand? First, as a whole (not only Dallas/Fort Worth), Texas is flourishing right now. The state leads the nation in job growth, gaining nearly 300,000 new jobs in 2013, with one-third of those being considered high-paying jobs. Second, Texas leads the nation in population growth. These new residents benefit from the affordability of Texas versus that of other states. Here, we enjoy no income taxes and a lower price of living. In turn, this provides a better quality of life. Performance Needless to say, such growth and business-friendly conditions have a large impact on the multifamily sector of commercial real estate. Occupancies are the highest they’ve been in more than a decade. The current overall vacancy of 5.4 percent is a full 100 basis points below the level we saw 12 months ago, and effective rents have increased by 3.3 percent in the …
Galveston is poised for economic growth and expansion on several fronts. With a proven track record for resiliency, the city has continued to see investments across the island touching all geographic and economic clusters. As illustrated in the 2013 Developer Profile magazine, a publication of the Galveston Economic Development Partnership (GEDP), more than $2 billion in investment is currently in process across the island. The area is seeing new investment in both public and private sector ventures. Retail, commercial, residential, industrial and institutional projects continue moving forward at an accelerated pace. Education & Healthcare As home to the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston (UTMB), Texas A&M University at Galveston (TAMUG), Galveston College, Texas A&M Engineering Extension Service (TEEX) Center for Marine Training and Safety, the Galveston Independent School District and several other private schools and charter schools, Galveston Island has a strong education sector. These institutions are each making investments, which points to an enhanced and superior environment for education and healthcare services. For example, UTMB is currently constructing the new Jennie Sealy Hospital, a $438 million facility with 310 patient rooms, 58 intensive care unit beds and 20 state-of-the-art operating rooms. The hospital is expected to open …
The Texas economy has recovered quickly from the recession, and Fort Worth is a prime example of a flourishing commercial real estate market. Leasing activity in the city’s retail market is high, despite low inventory and increased rental rates. Cap rates are low, investment sales have increased, and the scarce inventory has prompted multiple new developments. Incredible leasing activity involving both national and local credit retailers has been seen across the market, and the activity is projected to continue throughout the year. In particular, there are many high-end grocers entering the Tarrant County market, such as H-E-B, Sprouts and Whole Foods, to name a few. With leasing activity increasing in the market, there is a high demand for retail space, but there is a low supply, evident in the current 8 percent vacancy rate. The limited availability of leasable retail space coupled with high demand in the market has continued to drive up rents — rates have increased by 5.5 percent since the first quarter of 2013 — and has also begun to affect sales prices. The average asking price for Tarrant County retail investment properties currently stands at $146 per square foot, compared to $142 per square foot in …
While growth and development have been evident in most Texas areas during the last few years, Lubbock shines bright among cities in the Lone Star State. As Marci Russell, former chief economist with CNBC, said, “Lubbock’s got oil and gas, a strong agricultural presence, a great university and a health care system that is the envy of other communities.” The year 2013 brought amazing growth, and the positive economic trends look to continue in 2014. Building permits climbed to a surprising 987 last year, up 143 percent, and retail sales and payroll employment are still growing. Employment increased by 4 percent in 2013, ranking Lubbock fourth in Texas in terms of growth in that metric. The unemployment rate declined sharply to 4.3 percent, the lowest since 2008, and Lubbock’s consumer price index was up 2.1 percent year-over-year in January. Another sign of improvement in Lubbock is how the transportation system in the city has been enhanced with the completion of the Marsha Sharp Freeway and the Northwest Passage. Additionally, the Milwaukee Corridor continues to expand with development in retail, office, and small business on the West side. Sector-by-Sector Several large users of office and industrial space relocated and/or expanded to …
There is no denying the Houston commercial real estate market is one of the strongest in the nation, and all indications are it will remain on this upward trajectory — especially the industrial sector. The Urban Land Institute (ULI) recently ranked Houston as the second best market to invest in industrial real estate in the country in its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2014 report, and the organization predicts we will continue to build on this momentum. While energy-related businesses and healthcare have certainly fueled the overall real estate growth in recent years, we are now seeing more consumer goods and e-commerce tenants take occupancy in industrial properties. This activity will ramp up even more as we move closer to the Panama Canal expansion opening in 2015, as well as the enlargement of the Port of Houston. Larger Trends In the first quarter of 2014, we saw 2.4 million square feet of industrial space delivered, and more than 8 million square feet of industrial construction underway. Vacancy remains low at 5.4 percent, and net absorption is at 1.6 million square feet for the first quarter of 2014. A steady increase in job creation and homebuilding are also contributing factors. Houston’s …
There is no doubt that Walmart is the dominant force driving growth in the San Antonio area right now. San Antonio-area shoppers gained four new Walmart Supercenters in 2013, five more are nearing completion and scheduled to open in the next few months, and two or three more are expected to break ground later this year. At the same time, two new Sam’s Club stores will be opening in the first quarter, and Walmart’s new Neighborhood Market concept stores are slated to debut in the area this year with three locations already announced and more expected. Meanwhile, speculative development has remained very limited, but two new projects — both located in the Northwest sector — were delivered in the final quarter of 2013. Although not huge projects, these two new centers mark the delivery of San Antonio’s first sizeable speculative retail properties in over a year. One of these developments was Helotes Town Centre, which serves as an example of growth stimulated by the adjacent Walmart that opened earlier in the year. Pre-leasing activity in the 50,000-square-foot Helotes center includes Great Clips, Cash Store and Marco’s Pizza. Elsewhere, Dominion Ridge is a two-story retail project located along the I-10 corridor …
Although El Paso’s industrial vacancy rate remains near recession highs, the city is surrounded by positive developments expected to drive stronger demand and allow for tighter industrial fundamentals. The high vacancy is due in large part to the availability of large, bulk spaces of 200,000 square feet and more. However, such properties account for only 30 percent of El Paso’s industrial inventory, and these structures do not serve the market’s core tenants, which typically seek spaces of 100,000 square feet or less. There are currently six of these large vacancies in El Paso for a total of 2.6 million square feet, which represents 34 percent of the total vacant space in the market. Without these large blocks of availability, the market vacancy rate would be in single digits; also, several encouraging trends point to improved conditions ahead. Submarkets The East and Lower Valley industrial submarkets, which account for more than half of the total industrial inventory in the city, have stabilized for spaces less than 100,000 square feet. Bulk vacancies (in this case, buildings greater than 600,000 square feet) in these submarkets are keeping overall vacancy elevated, but for industrial space that meets the size of El Paso’s core tenants, …
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