RED Capital Group

Fort Lauderdale Multifamily Sector Offers Investors Shelter from the Viral Storm

by Sarah Daniels April 27, 2020

Many multifamily real estate investors have moved to the sidelines until price transparency returns and the trajectory of property performance becomes clearer. It is a prudent strategy. Indeed, this period of forced inactivity is, perhaps, better used to reflect on the future and consider which U.S. apartment markets will offer the most attractive opportunities when the moment arrives to test the waters again. Conventional wisdom holds that markets with significant reliance on leisure travel employment will be hardest hit by the pandemic, particularly those with outsized exposure to the cruise industry. It’s hard to refute the logic. But investors who interpret it too literally may miss potentially attractive options. Take Fort Lauderdale, for example. The Broward County labor market has one of the highest exposures in the country to the leisure, hospitality and cruise sectors. More than 3.9 million cruise passengers embarked from the port last year, generating direct employment for about 15,000 residents and indirect employment for tens of thousands more in the lodging, dining and entertainment, air transportation and retail sectors. With the cruise industry taking on water surely investors would be well advised to steer clear of the Gold Coast? Perhaps not. In fact, the statistical impact …

April 27, 2020

RED Capital Orlando Multifamily Rent and Occupancy Forecast

Content Partner Features Florida Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Southeast

Orlando Multifamily Could Suffer Multiyear COVID-19 Recession Contraction

by Sarah Daniels April 20, 2020

Since the end of the Great Recession, Orlando has been among the country’s fastest-growing economies and strongest multifamily markets. After 2014, metro payroll employment increased at a 3.7 percent compound annual rate, 120 percent faster than the national average. Only Austin surpassed Orlando for payroll growth among the peer group of 50 large metropolitan markets, according to The RED 50, a proprietary econometric model developed by RED Capital Research. Personal income grew about 6.8 percent annually, 45 percent faster than the national average. Apropos of the apartment sector, effective rents advanced at a 5.9 percent annual rate, according to Reis data, surpassed only by Atlanta (6.9 percent), Dallas (6.0 percent) and Nashville (6.2 percent) among growth markets — and not by much. All the while, the sources of Orlando’s prosperity grew more diverse and its labor force more highly skilled. In the past five years, the fastest growing segments of the metro economy were professional, technical and scientific services, air transportation, manufacturing and construction. Indeed, employment growth in the sectors most popularly associated with Orlando — arts and entertainment plus food services and lodging — was outpaced by the finance and insurance industry. Nonetheless, theme parks, resort hotels, leisure service and …

April 20, 2020

Nashville Rent & Occupancy Forecast Under COVID-19, RED Capital

Content Partner Features Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Southeast Tennessee

Multifamily Sector in Music City Hits All the Right Notes

by Sarah Daniels April 13, 2020

In Homer’s Odyssey, Odysseus resisted the Sirens’ beguiling music by lashing himself to the mast of his ship. But few relocating businesses, ambitious young people from the Midwest and Mid-South or multifamily developers have been able to resist the charming sounds wafting from Music City these days. Nashville’s pro-growth disposition, competitive operating cost structure, high quality of life and vital cultural scene make it a formidable competitor for investment and business relocation among U.S. growth markets. Beverage marketer Icee, e-commerce unicorn SmileDirectClub and Mitsubishi North America were just a few of the nearly 100 companies that elected to move headquarters operations to or expand in the Nashville area last year. The moves were emblematic of Nashville’s emergence as the go-to spot for major industries — Tennessee now ranks second among states for automobile manufacturing employment after Michigan — and fast-growing tech-focused start-ups. The pipeline is just as robust in 2020. Employment statistics speak for themselves. Nashville added 30,000 or more payroll jobs in each of the last eight years: one of only two U.S. metros in the under 1.5 million-job weight class to check that box (Austin is the other.) While the unemployment rate was only 2.8 percent in January, …

April 13, 2020

Atlanta Rent & Occupancy Forecast Under COVID-19 Stress

Content Partner Features Georgia Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Southeast

Atlanta Economic Juggernaut Encounters COVID-19 Roadblock

by Sarah Daniels April 8, 2020

In January, the Atlanta market was ticking like a fine Swiss watch. With leadership from its robust crew of business, education, healthcare, accommodations and leisure services industries, the economy cruised into 2020 with a full head of steam. Although moderately slower than regional peers, Atlanta’s pace of job creation was considerably faster than state and national averages, contributing to falling unemployment — the metro rate was only 3.2 percent in January, the lowest ever for the first month of the year — and strong absorption of office space in blossoming Midtown. Construction projects large and small transformed the landscape at a formidable pace, molding urban neighborhoods in a grand style rarely seen in 21st century America. Multibillion dollar developments like Centennial Yards and the ambitious mass-transit-inspired Atlanta Beltline project promised to enhance the urban living environment while preserving Atlanta’s renowned quality of life. No commercial real estate segment was more active than multifamily. Last year, apartment properties valued at nearly $8 billion exchanged hands, establishing a metro series record. In addition, construction of more than 17,000 units is underway — assets with stabilized value of about $2.5 billion — and another 25,000 units are planned. Late-decade property performance was among …

April 8, 2020

Content Partner Features Lument Multifamily North Carolina RED Capital Group Southeast

Raleigh’s Potent Economic, Demographic Growth Rewards Multifamily Investors

by Sarah Daniels April 1, 2020

Raleigh checks all the boxes: a youthful, highly educated population, top research universities, a thriving large cap research and tech sector, plus clement weather. It’s Austin with more first-rate college basketball teams and less traffic. Despite its conspicuous lack of entry barriers, multifamily investors and developers have placed enormous bets on Raleigh’s continuing success. Since 2017, apartment properties valued at nearly $8 billion have exchanged hands and over 15,000 market-rate apartment units worth more than $2.5 billion were delivered — a commitment of capital the equivalent of roughly $11,000 for every working Triangle resident. Competition promises to be no less taxing this year. Supply in 2020 will approach 8,000 units, easily the largest vintage in market history and an increase of 40 percent from last year. Few players have regrets. The metro apartment and labor markets continue to perform at full throttle, and investment returns remain among the highest in the country. There were, however, moments of doubt. Recent preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll employment and hourly wage data for the nine-month period that ended in June 2019 recorded uncharacteristically soft results. Initial reports suggested that metro payroll job formation had limped along at a 1 percent annual pace …

April 1, 2020

Charlotte Rent and Occupancy, RED Capital

Content Partner Features Lument Multifamily North Carolina RED Capital Group Southeast

Charlotte Surges into the First Rank of U.S. Growth Markets

by Sarah Daniels March 20, 2020

Charlotte is America’s second-largest commercial banking center, home to one of the country’s biggest financial institutions, Bank of America; soon the headquarters site of another when BB&T and SunTrust merge; and host to more employees of Wells Fargo than call its San Francisco base home. It would be hard to exaggerate the economic benefits the local market secures from this status. One growing but not widely appreciated benefit is the Queen City’s emergence as one of the world’s hotbeds of innovation in fintech, the space in which digital technology and financial services intersect. With support from local financial services giants, well-funded fintech incubators (like Queen City Fintech, hired by IBM to build and run their Hyper Protect accelerators) and a burgeoning start-up community, Charlotte has hatched a small army of successful fintech firms capitalized with more than $2 billion to date. Lately, entrepreneurs in other disciplines have come to appreciate Charlotte’s virtues. Nascent disruptors in the healthcare and electric power sectors are setting down roots in the city, attracted by its low operating and living costs, quality of life, deep well of talent and uniquely collaborative style. The injection of start-up energy into Charlotte’s thriving Fortune 500 business foundation catalyzed …

March 20, 2020

Baltimore Multifamily Rent and Occupancy Forecast March 2020

Content Partner Lument Market Reports Maryland Multifamily RED Capital Group Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Underappreciated Multifamily Markets: Maryland Edition

by Jaime Lackey March 17, 2020

Although attractive multifamily investment opportunities may still be available in gateway cities, investors increasingly are sourcing deals in secondary markets where land and asset prices are lower, cap rates a bit more generous and an unpicked gem of value-add fruit can still be found on the vine by intrepid late-cycle buyers. Parties looking to replicate past successes may not have to look too far afield as Maryland markets — overshadowed of late by Washington and Philadelphia — offer much of what they seek with perhaps a lower degree of risk. In the last decade and particularly the last three years, the catalyst for economic growth in the Capital Area has shifted from government to high-tech services. As the tide turned, the focus of commercial real estate activity moved south toward Washington’s central core and Northern Virginia. In the process, the Maryland suburbs lost some of their star power. The diminished status of Montgomery and Prince George’s counties wasn’t entirely a matter of perception. Suburban Maryland apartment performance materially underperformed national averages in 2017 and 2018, and the spread widened between cap rates applied to Maryland properties on one hand and District and Northern Virginia assets on the other. Same-store property …

March 17, 2020

Washington and North Virginia Rent Occupancy Graph

Content Partner District of Columbia Features Lument Market Reports Multifamily RED Capital Group Southeast Southeast Market Reports Virginia

Washington’s Tech Boom Changes the Multifamily Investment Calculus

by Sarah Daniels March 3, 2020

Washington and Northern Virginia are among the nation’s most expensive places to rent an apartment, which in part explains the billions of dollars being spent on apartment construction there. But Capital Area asset returns in the post-recession era haven’t clearly supported these decisions. From 2013 to 2018, rents in Washington and NoVA increased at respective compound annual rates of 3.2 percent and 2.6 percent, tabulating Reis data, materially slower than the 4.7 percent average growth recorded by the 50 largest U.S. apartment markets. Likewise, occupancy trends were no better than average, muted by heavy supply, suggesting that Washington NOI growth in most cases was measurably slower than in alternative markets. But everything changed last year. Although Washington has been a technology player for decades, the region’s strengths fell primarily in telecom and defense, markets in which proximity to government was a competitive advantage. But the region’s growing prowess in private applications of digital technology reached critical mass in 2019 with Amazon’s decision to site its East Coast headquarters in Northern Virginia, specifically with a view toward tapping its deep reservoir of high-tech talent. The impact on economic growth in the capital is only beginning and seems likely to fundamentally alter …

March 3, 2020

Philadelphia Rent & Occupancy Graph 2020

Content Partner Features Lument Market Reports Multifamily Northeast Northeast Market Reports Pennsylvania RED Capital Group

Philadelphia’s New Brand Identity in Commercial Real Estate

by Sarah Daniels February 26, 2020

Interest in Philadelphia among commercial real estate investors has been on the rise for years. But the Eastern Pennsylvania market managed to maintain a relatively low profile in the public consciousness, overshadowed by its larger East Coast primary market rivals, each with its own clear brand identity. But this is largely a thing of the past. Philadelphia has emerged lately as a leader in cutting-edge biotech and life science innovation. The city is a magnet for gene and cell-level therapy entrepreneurs, a status that is rapidly evolving into a distinct brand. Billions in venture capital and real estate investment have followed, elevating the Athens of America to the top rank of U.S. competitors for global investment cash. The multifamily sector is a chief beneficiary of the trend. Fueled by strong demand for luxury space, builders ratcheted apartment development higher over the past 10 years, raising construction starts from about 4,000 units per year at mid-decade to 6,000 annually since 2017. Currently, there are about 8,000 multifamily units under construction, and the pace isn’t likely to slow much this year. The magnitude of the supply surge is anticipated with a degree of trepidation in some quarters. Philadelphia renters have never absorbed …

February 26, 2020

New York Multifamily Rent and Occupancy Forecast 2020

Content Partner Features Lument Market Reports Multifamily New York Northeast Northeast Market Reports RED Capital Group

Expanded Rent Stabilization Law Freezes NYC Stabilized Multifamily Property Market, Generates Buying Opportunities for Intrepid Investors

by Sarah Daniels February 21, 2020

New York state authorities last year passed legislation designed to maintain rental affordability and housing stability in the Empire State. Mandated changes for units not currently subject to stabilization were mostly technical in nature — relating to rent increase notification periods, evictions and security deposits — but the impact on the New York City’s nearly 1 million regulated units was significant. Previously, an owner’s ability to raise stabilized unit rents was limited by a city board, except upon vacancy or after major property or unit improvements were made. These exceptions were curtailed by the legislation, largely negating the appeal of buying, renovating and repositioning older properties. The regulations sent a chill through the recently hot New York City multifamily property market. Sales volume dropped by half last year to about $3.3 billion, with the largest declines coming after the law took effect at mid-year. Indeed, volume in the typically busy fourth quarter plunged to less than $200 million, the lowest single-quarter sales total since recessionary 2010. Although obscured by thin volume, cap rates appeared to rise. After hovering near 4 percent throughout 2018, institutional B/B+ quality asset purchase yields gapped higher, drifting up to about 4.25 percent at mid-year and …

February 21, 2020

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